MAZDOCK
MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MAZDOCK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) trades at ₹2,542,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.
On the numbers, MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 39.8× earnings, ROE of 29.2%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MAZDOCK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MAZDOCK overvalued? MAZDOCK P/E vs its Defence
MAZDOCK's P/E of 39.8× sits above the Defence peer median of 33.1×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.68% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.68%.
MAZDOCK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MAZDOCK history (12%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAZDOCK 2027 | ₹1,369 | ₹2,549 | ₹4,760 | +1% |
| MAZDOCK 2028 | ₹1,084 | ₹2,574 | ₹6,092 | +2% |
| MAZDOCK 2029 | ₹902 | ₹2,604 | ₹7,668 | +3% |
| MAZDOCK 2030 | ₹784 | ₹2,594 | ₹8,922 | +3% |
| MAZDOCK 2031 | ₹688 | ₹2,610 | ₹10,327 | +4% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MAZDOCK goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MAZDOCK
- High return on equity (29.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (36.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,668.
The bear case & risks
- At 39.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹902.
MAZDOCK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MAZDOCK compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,369–₹4,760, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MAZDOCK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MAZDOCK price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MAZDOCK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MAZDOCK price target & forecast page.
MAZDOCK Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MAZDOCK scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MAZDOCK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MAZDOCK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.2% | 2.8× |
| Zerodha | 30.0% | 3.3× |
| Groww | 30.4% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 28.2% | 3.5× |
Compare every broker on the MAZDOCK MTF page.
MAZDOCK vs peers,Defence comparison
About MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD: sector, index & market-cap context
MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Defence sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.03L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the MAZDOCK Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MAZDOCK analysis, FAQs
Is MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) a good buy?
On the numbers, MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 39.8× earnings, ROE of 29.2%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MAZDOCK overvalued or undervalued?
MAZDOCK trades at 39.8× earnings versus a peer median of 33.1×, so it screens richer than its Defence peers.
What is the MAZDOCK share price target for 2031?
MAZDOCK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,610, with an 80% range of ₹688–₹10,327 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MAZDOCK doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MAZDOCK reaching ₹5,037 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.
What is the bull case for MAZDOCK?
High return on equity (29.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (36.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in MAZDOCK?
At 39.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.