Case study

MAZDOCK

MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD

Mixed signals1y model +1.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MAZDOCK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) trades at ₹2,542,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 39.8× earnings, ROE of 29.2%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MAZDOCK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.03L Cr
Current price
₹2,542
P/E ratio
39.8×
P/B ratio
10.50×
Book value
₹242
Dividend yield
0.68%
ROCE
36.0%
ROE
29.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MAZDOCK overvalued? MAZDOCK P/E vs its Defence

MAZDOCK's P/E of 39.8× sits above the Defence peer median of 33.1×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.68% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.68%.

MAZDOCK P/E
39.8×
Peer median P/E
33.1×
MAZDOCK div yield
0.68%
Peer median yield
0.68%

MAZDOCK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MAZDOCK history (12%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MAZDOCK 2027₹1,369₹2,549₹4,760+1%
MAZDOCK 2028₹1,084₹2,574₹6,092+2%
MAZDOCK 2029₹902₹2,604₹7,668+3%
MAZDOCK 2030₹784₹2,594₹8,922+3%
MAZDOCK 2031₹688₹2,610₹10,327+4%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MAZDOCK goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
51%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹5,037 within 5 years

The bull case for MAZDOCK

  • High return on equity (29.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (36.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,668.

The bear case & risks

  • At 39.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹902.

MAZDOCK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MAZDOCK compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,369₹4,760, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MAZDOCK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.2%
80% range₹1,369–₹4,760
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
3.4%
80% range₹902–₹7,668
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
3.6%
80% range₹688–₹10,327
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)27%

MAZDOCK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MAZDOCK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MAZDOCK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MAZDOCK price target & forecast page.

MAZDOCK Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MAZDOCK scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MAZDOCK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MAZDOCK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.2%2.8×
Zerodha30.0%3.3×
Groww30.4%3.3×
DhanCHEAPEST28.2%3.5×

Compare every broker on the MAZDOCK MTF page.

MAZDOCK vs peers,Defence comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MAZDOCK (this stock)39.8×0.68%₹1.03L Cr
BEL52.0×0.56%₹3.15L Cr
HAL33.1×0.89%₹3.02L Cr
COCHINSHIP54.2×0.66%₹38,832 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr

About MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD: sector, index & market-cap context

MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Defence sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.03L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the MAZDOCK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MAZDOCK analysis, FAQs

Is MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) a good buy?

On the numbers, MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTD (MAZDOCK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 39.8× earnings, ROE of 29.2%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MAZDOCK overvalued or undervalued?

MAZDOCK trades at 39.8× earnings versus a peer median of 33.1×, so it screens richer than its Defence peers.

What is the MAZDOCK share price target for 2031?

MAZDOCK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,610, with an 80% range of ₹688₹10,327 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MAZDOCK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MAZDOCK reaching ₹5,037 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for MAZDOCK?

High return on equity (29.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (36.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in MAZDOCK?

At 39.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MAZDOCK