COCHINSHIP
Cochin Shipyard
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Cochin Shipyard (COCHINSHIP) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is COCHINSHIP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Cochin Shipyard (COCHINSHIP) trades at ₹1,476,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100.
On the numbers, Cochin Shipyard (COCHINSHIP) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 54.2× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
COCHINSHIP fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is COCHINSHIP overvalued? COCHINSHIP P/E vs its Defence
COCHINSHIP's P/E of 54.2× sits above the Defence peer median of 33.1×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.66% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.68%.
COCHINSHIP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of COCHINSHIP history (-20%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COCHINSHIP 2027 | ₹604 | ₹1,081 | ₹1,918 | -26% |
| COCHINSHIP 2028 | ₹351 | ₹814 | ₹1,847 | -44% |
| COCHINSHIP 2029 | ₹219 | ₹611 | ₹1,617 | -58% |
| COCHINSHIP 2030 | ₹138 | ₹453 | ₹1,417 | -69% |
| COCHINSHIP 2031 | ₹91 | ₹335 | ₹1,212 | -77% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability COCHINSHIP goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for COCHINSHIP
- A healthy 12.5% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,617.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 54.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹219.
COCHINSHIP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years COCHINSHIP compounded at -20%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹604–₹1,918, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
COCHINSHIP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
COCHINSHIP price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds COCHINSHIP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the COCHINSHIP price target & forecast page.
COCHINSHIP Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. COCHINSHIP scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
COCHINSHIP MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy COCHINSHIP with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.8% | 2.8× |
| Zerodha | 30.5% | 3.3× |
| Groww | 30.7% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.0% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the COCHINSHIP MTF page.
COCHINSHIP vs peers,Defence comparison
About Cochin Shipyard: sector, index & market-cap context
Cochin Shipyard (COCHINSHIP) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Defence sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹38,832 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the COCHINSHIP Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cochin Shipyard's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
COCHINSHIP analysis, FAQs
Is Cochin Shipyard (COCHINSHIP) a good buy?
On the numbers, Cochin Shipyard (COCHINSHIP) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 54.2× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is COCHINSHIP overvalued or undervalued?
COCHINSHIP trades at 54.2× earnings versus a peer median of 33.1×, so it screens richer than its Defence peers.
What is the COCHINSHIP share price target for 2031?
COCHINSHIP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹335, with an 80% range of ₹91–₹1,212 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability COCHINSHIP doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of COCHINSHIP reaching ₹2,916 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for COCHINSHIP?
A healthy 12.5% return on equity.
What are the risks in COCHINSHIP?
A rich 54.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.