DLF
DLF
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
DLF (DLF) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is DLF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
DLF (DLF) trades at ₹628,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.
On the numbers, DLF (DLF) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 36.7× earnings, ROE of 9.6%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
DLF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is DLF overvalued? DLF P/E vs its Realty
DLF's P/E of 36.7× sits above the Realty peer median of 27.0×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.96% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.47%.
DLF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of DLF history (-15%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLF 2027 | ₹341 | ₹510 | ₹764 | -18% |
| DLF 2028 | ₹240 | ₹421 | ₹735 | -33% |
| DLF 2029 | ₹172 | ₹343 | ₹693 | -45% |
| DLF 2030 | ₹126 | ₹280 | ₹634 | -55% |
| DLF 2031 | ₹93 | ₹229 | ₹559 | -63% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability DLF goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for DLF
- DLF is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹693.
The bear case & risks
- At 36.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Return on equity is a soft 9.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹172.
DLF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years DLF compounded at -15%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹341–₹764, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
DLF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
DLF price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds DLF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the DLF price target & forecast page.
DLF Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. DLF scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
DLF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DLF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.2% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 25.8% | 3.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.2% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the DLF MTF page.
DLF vs peers,Realty comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF (this stock) | 36.7× | 0.96% | ₹1.55L Cr |
| OBEROIRLTY | 25.1× | 0.47% | ₹61,460 Cr |
| GODREJPROP | 29.0× | 0.56% | ₹54,233 Cr |
| LODHA | 27.0× | 0.46% | ₹92,517 Cr |
| PRESTIGE | 54.5× | 0.12% | ₹65,137 Cr |
| RELIANCE | 23.1× | 0.45% | ₹17.95L Cr |
| TCS | 14.7× | 3.01% | ₹7.69L Cr |
About DLF: sector, index & market-cap context
DLF (DLF) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Realty sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.55L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the DLF Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of DLF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
DLF analysis, FAQs
Is DLF (DLF) a good buy?
On the numbers, DLF (DLF) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 36.7× earnings, ROE of 9.6%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is DLF overvalued or undervalued?
DLF trades at 36.7× earnings versus a peer median of 27.0×, so it screens richer than its Realty peers.
What is the DLF share price target for 2031?
DLF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹229, with an 80% range of ₹93–₹559 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability DLF doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of DLF reaching ₹1,249 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for DLF?
DLF is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in DLF?
At 36.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 9.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.