LODHA
Macrotech Developers
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Macrotech Developers (LODHA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is LODHA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Macrotech Developers (LODHA) trades at ₹927,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.
On the numbers, Macrotech Developers (LODHA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing premium at 27.0× earnings, ROE of 15.8%, a 19% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
LODHA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is LODHA overvalued? LODHA P/E vs its Realty
LODHA's P/E of 27.0× sits above the Realty peer median of 27.0×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.46% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.47%.
LODHA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LODHA history (-27%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LODHA 2027 | ₹389 | ₹648 | ₹1,094 | -29% |
| LODHA 2028 | ₹227 | ₹458 | ₹957 | -50% |
| LODHA 2029 | ₹136 | ₹328 | ₹803 | -64% |
| LODHA 2030 | ₹82 | ₹232 | ₹640 | -75% |
| LODHA 2031 | ₹51 | ₹164 | ₹510 | -82% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability LODHA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for LODHA
- A healthy 15.8% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹803.
The bear case & risks
- At 27.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 19% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹136.
LODHA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years LODHA compounded at -27%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹389–₹1,094, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
LODHA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
LODHA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds LODHA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the LODHA price target & forecast page.
LODHA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LODHA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
LODHA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LODHA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 33.6% | 3.0× |
| Zerodha | 28.7% | 3.5× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 26.6% | 3.8× |
Compare every broker on the LODHA MTF page.
LODHA vs peers,Realty comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| LODHA (this stock) | 27.0× | 0.46% | ₹92,517 Cr |
| DLF | 36.7× | 0.96% | ₹1.55L Cr |
| OBEROIRLTY | 25.1× | 0.47% | ₹61,460 Cr |
| GODREJPROP | 29.0× | 0.56% | ₹54,233 Cr |
| PRESTIGE | 54.5× | 0.12% | ₹65,137 Cr |
| RELIANCE | 23.1× | 0.45% | ₹17.95L Cr |
| TCS | 14.7× | 3.01% | ₹7.69L Cr |
About Macrotech Developers: sector, index & market-cap context
Macrotech Developers (LODHA) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Realty sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹92,517 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the LODHA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Macrotech Developers's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
LODHA analysis, FAQs
Is Macrotech Developers (LODHA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Macrotech Developers (LODHA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing premium at 27.0× earnings, ROE of 15.8%, a 19% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is LODHA overvalued or undervalued?
LODHA trades at 27.0× earnings versus a peer median of 27.0×, so it screens richer than its Realty peers.
What is the LODHA share price target for 2031?
LODHA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹164, with an 80% range of ₹51–₹510 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability LODHA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of LODHA reaching ₹1,836 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for LODHA?
A healthy 15.8% return on equity.
What are the risks in LODHA?
At 27.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 19% chance of finishing above today's price.