Case study

OBEROIRLTY

Oberoi Realty

Tread carefully1y model -10.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Oberoi Realty (OBEROIRLTY) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is OBEROIRLTY a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Oberoi Realty (OBEROIRLTY) trades at ₹1,691,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Oberoi Realty (OBEROIRLTY) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing premium at 25.1× earnings, ROE of 14.6%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

OBEROIRLTY fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹61,460 Cr
Current price
₹1,691
P/E ratio
25.1×
P/B ratio
3.43×
Book value
₹493
Dividend yield
0.47%
ROCE
17.3%
ROE
14.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is OBEROIRLTY overvalued? OBEROIRLTY P/E vs its Realty

OBEROIRLTY's P/E of 25.1× sits below the Realty peer median of 27.0×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.47% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.47%.

OBEROIRLTY P/E
25.1×
Peer median P/E
27.0×
OBEROIRLTY div yield
0.47%
Peer median yield
0.47%

OBEROIRLTY share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of OBEROIRLTY history (-6%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
OBEROIRLTY 2027₹999₹1,499₹2,256-11%
OBEROIRLTY 2028₹751₹1,336₹2,383-21%
OBEROIRLTY 2029₹589₹1,195₹2,455-29%
OBEROIRLTY 2030₹474₹1,075₹2,426-36%
OBEROIRLTY 2031₹383₹954₹2,400-43%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability OBEROIRLTY goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
21%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
4%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,367 within 5 years

The bull case for OBEROIRLTY

  • A healthy 14.6% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,455.

The bear case & risks

  • At 25.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹589.

OBEROIRLTY volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years OBEROIRLTY compounded at -6%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹999₹2,256, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

OBEROIRLTY price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.9%
80% range₹999–₹2,256
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.0%
80% range₹589–₹2,455
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)3%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
43.4%
80% range₹383–₹2,400
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)4%

OBEROIRLTY price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
OBEROIRLTY simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds OBEROIRLTY hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the OBEROIRLTY price target & forecast page.

OBEROIRLTY Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. OBEROIRLTY scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

OBEROIRLTY MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy OBEROIRLTY with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.4%3.4×
Zerodha25.1%4.0×
DhanCHEAPEST23.0%4.3×

Compare every broker on the OBEROIRLTY MTF page.

OBEROIRLTY vs peers,Realty comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
OBEROIRLTY (this stock)25.1×0.47%₹61,460 Cr
DLF36.7×0.96%₹1.55L Cr
GODREJPROP29.0×0.56%₹54,233 Cr
LODHA27.0×0.46%₹92,517 Cr
PRESTIGE54.5×0.12%₹65,137 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr

About Oberoi Realty: sector, index & market-cap context

Oberoi Realty (OBEROIRLTY) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Realty sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹61,460 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the OBEROIRLTY Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Oberoi Realty's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

OBEROIRLTY analysis, FAQs

Is Oberoi Realty (OBEROIRLTY) a good buy?

On the numbers, Oberoi Realty (OBEROIRLTY) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing premium at 25.1× earnings, ROE of 14.6%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is OBEROIRLTY overvalued or undervalued?

OBEROIRLTY trades at 25.1× earnings versus a peer median of 27.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Realty peers.

What is the OBEROIRLTY share price target for 2031?

OBEROIRLTY's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹954, with an 80% range of ₹383₹2,400 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability OBEROIRLTY doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of OBEROIRLTY reaching ₹3,367 (2×) within 5 years is 4%.

What is the bull case for OBEROIRLTY?

A healthy 14.6% return on equity.

What are the risks in OBEROIRLTY?

At 25.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on OBEROIRLTY