KOTAKBANK
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD (KOTAKBANK) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is KOTAKBANK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD (KOTAKBANK) trades at ₹402,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD (KOTAKBANK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.0× earnings, ROE of 11.2%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on KOTAKBANK
Kotak has long traded like a best-in-class private bank, and a P/E near 21 still carries that quality premium. The puzzle is that the underlying returns no longer obviously earn it: an ROE around 11 percent is merely decent for a large lender, and a Piotroski score of 4 of 9 hints the recent financial trend is soft rather than strengthening. The real question is whether this is a temporary reset or a durably lower-return franchise being priced on past reputation. Watch whether profitability and loan-book momentum reaccelerate to justify the valuation.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
KOTAKBANK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is KOTAKBANK overvalued? KOTAKBANK P/E vs its Banking
KOTAKBANK's P/E of 21.0× sits above the Banking peer median of 17.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.12% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.16%.
KOTAKBANK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KOTAKBANK history (6%/yr drift, 22%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOTAKBANK 2027 | ₹316 | ₹418 | ₹556 | +4% |
| KOTAKBANK 2028 | ₹291 | ₹436 | ₹648 | +8% |
| KOTAKBANK 2029 | ₹278 | ₹457 | ₹739 | +14% |
| KOTAKBANK 2030 | ₹268 | ₹476 | ₹835 | +18% |
| KOTAKBANK 2031 | ₹259 | ₹497 | ₹931 | +24% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability KOTAKBANK goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for KOTAKBANK
- A 21.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Relatively low volatility (22%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹739.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 11.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹278.
KOTAKBANK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years KOTAKBANK compounded at 6%/year with annualized volatility of 22%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹316–₹556, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
KOTAKBANK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
KOTAKBANK price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds KOTAKBANK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the KOTAKBANK price target & forecast page.
KOTAKBANK Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KOTAKBANK scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
KOTAKBANK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KOTAKBANK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.5% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the KOTAKBANK MTF page.
KOTAKBANK vs peers,Banking comparison
About KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD: sector, index & market-cap context
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD (KOTAKBANK) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹4.00L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the KOTAKBANK Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
KOTAKBANK analysis, FAQs
Is KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD (KOTAKBANK) a good buy?
On the numbers, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD (KOTAKBANK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.0× earnings, ROE of 11.2%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is KOTAKBANK overvalued or undervalued?
KOTAKBANK trades at 21.0× earnings versus a peer median of 17.9×, so it screens richer than its Banking peers.
What is the KOTAKBANK share price target for 2031?
KOTAKBANK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹497, with an 80% range of ₹259–₹931 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability KOTAKBANK doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of KOTAKBANK reaching ₹804 (2×) within 5 years is 16%.
What is the bull case for KOTAKBANK?
A 21.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Relatively low volatility (22%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in KOTAKBANK?
Return on equity is a soft 11.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.