Case study

MPHASIS

Mphasis

Worth a closer look1y model -7.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Mphasis (MPHASIS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MPHASIS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Mphasis (MPHASIS) trades at ₹2,280,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100.

On the numbers, Mphasis (MPHASIS) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.0× earnings, ROE of 18.5%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MPHASIS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹43,445 Cr
Current price
₹2,280
P/E ratio
23.0×
P/B ratio
4.05×
Book value
₹563
Dividend yield
2.72%
ROCE
22.8%
ROE
18.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MPHASIS overvalued? MPHASIS P/E vs its IT

MPHASIS's P/E of 23.0× sits above the IT peer median of 16.2×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.72% dividend yield is below the peer median of 4.03%.

MPHASIS P/E
23.0×
Peer median P/E
16.2×
MPHASIS div yield
2.72%
Peer median yield
4.03%

MPHASIS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MPHASIS history (-3%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MPHASIS 2027₹1,403₹2,095₹3,137-8%
MPHASIS 2028₹1,095₹1,945₹3,440-14%
MPHASIS 2029₹883₹1,805₹3,603-20%
MPHASIS 2030₹728₹1,649₹3,708-27%
MPHASIS 2031₹607₹1,522₹3,721-33%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MPHASIS goes up, or doubles?

40%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
29%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
6%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹4,535 within 5 years

The bull case for MPHASIS

  • A 23.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (18.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (22.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Pays a 2.7% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,603.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹883.

MPHASIS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MPHASIS compounded at -3%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,403₹3,137, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MPHASIS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.6%
80% range₹1,403–₹3,137
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
20.4%
80% range₹883–₹3,603
P(price ↑)33%
P(price 2×)4%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
32.9%
80% range₹607–₹3,721
P(price ↑)29%
P(price 2×)6%

MPHASIS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MPHASIS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MPHASIS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MPHASIS price target & forecast page.

MPHASIS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MPHASIS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MPHASIS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MPHASIS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.6%3.4×
Zerodha25.3%4.0×
DhanCHEAPEST23.0%4.3×

Compare every broker on the MPHASIS MTF page.

MPHASIS vs peers,IT comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MPHASIS (this stock)23.0×2.72%₹43,445 Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
HCLTECH17.7×4.78%₹3.07L Cr
WIPRO14.4×6.11%₹1.89L Cr
TECHM28.1×3.55%₹1.41L Cr

About Mphasis: sector, index & market-cap context

Mphasis (MPHASIS) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the IT sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹43,445 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the MPHASIS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mphasis's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MPHASIS analysis, FAQs

Is Mphasis (MPHASIS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Mphasis (MPHASIS) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.0× earnings, ROE of 18.5%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MPHASIS overvalued or undervalued?

MPHASIS trades at 23.0× earnings versus a peer median of 16.2×, so it screens richer than its IT peers.

What is the MPHASIS share price target for 2031?

MPHASIS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,522, with an 80% range of ₹607₹3,721 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MPHASIS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MPHASIS reaching ₹4,535 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.

What is the bull case for MPHASIS?

A 23.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (18.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (22.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in MPHASIS?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on MPHASIS