Case study

ADANIPORTS

Adani Port

Mixed signals1y model +6.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Adani Port (ADANIPORTS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ADANIPORTS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Adani Port (ADANIPORTS) trades at ₹1,827,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.

On the numbers, Adani Port (ADANIPORTS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 32.5× earnings, ROE of 16.4%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on ADANIPORTS

The debate here is whether a port operator should trade like a fast compounder. A 32.5 P/E asks for growth that the mid-teens ROE and 14.1% ROCE only partly justify, and at a 0.41% yield this is reinvestment, not income. The tension is that returns sit comfortably above the cost of capital yet the multiple already prices in years of cargo and asset expansion going right. The Piotroski 4 of 9 is the flag worth watching: track whether cash flow, margins and leverage are actually firming, or whether the premium is resting on the story rather than the books.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.

ADANIPORTS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹4.21L Cr
Current price
₹1,827
P/E ratio
32.5×
P/B ratio
4.39×
Book value
₹416
Dividend yield
0.41%
ROCE
14.1%
ROE
16.4%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is ADANIPORTS overvalued? ADANIPORTS P/E vs its Infrastructure

ADANIPORTS's P/E of 32.5× sits above the Infrastructure peer median of 32.5×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.41% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.70%.

ADANIPORTS P/E
32.5×
Peer median P/E
32.5×
ADANIPORTS div yield
0.41%
Peer median yield
0.70%

ADANIPORTS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ADANIPORTS history (12%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ADANIPORTS 2027₹1,348₹1,955₹2,900+7%
ADANIPORTS 2028₹1,229₹2,116₹3,609+15%
ADANIPORTS 2029₹1,163₹2,272₹4,457+24%
ADANIPORTS 2030₹1,118₹2,431₹5,295+32%
ADANIPORTS 2031₹1,097₹2,601₹6,257+42%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ADANIPORTS goes up, or doubles?

58%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
69%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
31%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,671 within 5 years

The bull case for ADANIPORTS

  • A healthy 16.4% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,457.

The bear case & risks

  • At 32.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,163.

ADANIPORTS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years ADANIPORTS compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,348₹2,900, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ADANIPORTS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.5%
80% range₹1,348–₹2,900
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
23.8%
80% range₹1,163–₹4,457
P(price ↑)66%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
41.7%
80% range₹1,097–₹6,257
P(price ↑)69%
P(price 2×)31%

ADANIPORTS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ADANIPORTS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ADANIPORTS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ADANIPORTS price target & forecast page.

ADANIPORTS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ADANIPORTS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

ADANIPORTS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ADANIPORTS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.3%3.3×
Zerodha25.9%3.9×
DhanCHEAPEST25.0%4.0×

Compare every broker on the ADANIPORTS MTF page.

ADANIPORTS vs peers,Infrastructure comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ADANIPORTS (this stock)32.5×0.41%₹4.21L Cr
LT35.2×0.90%₹5.78L Cr
RVNL58.7×0.70%₹51,308 Cr
IRB29.8×0.71%₹26,197 Cr
GMRAIRPORT549.0×0.00%₹1.14L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr

About Adani Port: sector, index & market-cap context

Adani Port (ADANIPORTS) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Infrastructure sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹4.21L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the ADANIPORTS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Adani Port's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ADANIPORTS analysis, FAQs

Is Adani Port (ADANIPORTS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Adani Port (ADANIPORTS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 32.5× earnings, ROE of 16.4%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ADANIPORTS overvalued or undervalued?

ADANIPORTS trades at 32.5× earnings versus a peer median of 32.5×, so it screens richer than its Infrastructure peers.

What is the ADANIPORTS share price target for 2031?

ADANIPORTS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,601, with an 80% range of ₹1,097₹6,257 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ADANIPORTS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ADANIPORTS reaching ₹3,671 (2×) within 5 years is 31%.

What is the bull case for ADANIPORTS?

A healthy 16.4% return on equity.

What are the risks in ADANIPORTS?

At 32.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.

More on ADANIPORTS