Case study

IRB

IRB Infrastructure Developers

Tread carefully1y model -23.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IRB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB) trades at ₹22,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 29.8× earnings, ROE of 4.3%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IRB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹26,197 Cr
Current price
₹22
P/E ratio
29.8×
P/B ratio
1.25×
Book value
₹17
Dividend yield
0.71%
ROCE
7.5%
ROE
4.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is IRB overvalued? IRB P/E vs its Infrastructure

IRB's P/E of 29.8× sits below the Infrastructure peer median of 32.5×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.71% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.70%.

IRB P/E
29.8×
Peer median P/E
32.5×
IRB div yield
0.71%
Peer median yield
0.70%

IRB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IRB history (-22%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IRB 2027₹11₹16₹25-24%
IRB 2028₹7₹12₹22-42%
IRB 2029₹5₹9₹19-56%
IRB 2030₹3₹7₹16-67%
IRB 2031₹2₹5₹14-74%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IRB goes up, or doubles?

20%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
3%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹43 within 5 years

The bull case for IRB

  • Low price-to-book of 1.25×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹19.

The bear case & risks

  • At 29.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 4.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹5.

IRB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years IRB compounded at -22%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹11₹25, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IRB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
23.6%
80% range₹11–₹25
P(price ↑)20%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
55.9%
80% range₹5–₹19
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
74.4%
80% range₹2–₹14
P(price ↑)3%
P(price 2×)0%

IRB price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IRB simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IRB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IRB price target & forecast page.

IRB Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IRB scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

IRB MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IRB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST30.9%3.2×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST30.9%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST30.9%3.2×

Compare every broker on the IRB MTF page.

IRB vs peers,Infrastructure comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
IRB (this stock)29.8×0.71%₹26,197 Cr
LT35.2×0.90%₹5.78L Cr
ADANIPORTS32.5×0.41%₹4.21L Cr
RVNL58.7×0.70%₹51,308 Cr
GMRAIRPORT549.0×0.00%₹1.14L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr

About IRB Infrastructure Developers: sector, index & market-cap context

IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Infrastructure sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹26,197 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the IRB Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IRB Infrastructure Developers's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IRB analysis, FAQs

Is IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB) a good buy?

On the numbers, IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 29.8× earnings, ROE of 4.3%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IRB overvalued or undervalued?

IRB trades at 29.8× earnings versus a peer median of 32.5×, so it screens cheaper than its Infrastructure peers.

What is the IRB share price target for 2031?

IRB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5, with an 80% range of ₹2₹14 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IRB doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IRB reaching ₹43 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for IRB?

Low price-to-book of 1.25×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in IRB?

At 29.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 4.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on IRB