RVNL
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED (RVNL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is RVNL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED (RVNL) trades at ₹233,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.
On the numbers, RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED (RVNL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 55.6× earnings, ROE of 9.0%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
RVNL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How RVNL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- RVNL's market cap of 48,660 Cr ranks in the 91st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- RVNL's book value of ₹47 ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- RVNL's promoter holding of 72.8% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- RVNL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -13.0% ranks in the 17th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- RVNL's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49x is lower than 36% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a 3-year revenue growth figure for RVNL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is RVNL overvalued? RVNL P/E vs its Infrastructure
RVNL's P/E of 55.6× sits above the Infrastructure peer median of 29.4×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.73% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.73%.
RVNL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 7.2y of RVNL history (35%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RVNL 2027 | ₹143 | ₹243 | ₹413 | +4% |
| RVNL 2028 | ₹119 | ₹253 | ₹540 | +8% |
| RVNL 2029 | ₹105 | ₹264 | ₹658 | +13% |
| RVNL 2030 | ₹95 | ₹274 | ₹791 | +18% |
| RVNL 2031 | ₹88 | ₹286 | ₹934 | +22% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability RVNL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for RVNL
- RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹658.
The bear case & risks
- RVNL's P/E of 55.6x is lower than 23% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- RVNL's return on equity of 9.0% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹105.
RVNL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 7.2 years RVNL compounded at 35%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹143-₹413, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
RVNL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
RVNL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds RVNL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the RVNL price target & forecast page.
RVNL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. RVNL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
RVNL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RVNL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.29% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 28.80% | 3.5× |
| Groww | 60.00% | 1.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 26.75% | 3.7× |
| Kotak Neo | 30.03% | 3.3× |
| Paytm Money | 36.79% | 2.7× |
| Pocketful | 34.28% | 2.9× |
| Anand Rathi | 33.75% | 3.0× |
| Bajaj Broking | 31.00% | 3.2× |
| Share India | 33.87% | 3.0× |
Compare every broker on the RVNL MTF page.
RVNL vs peers,Infrastructure comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| RVNL (this stock) | 55.6× | 0.73% | ₹48,660 Cr |
| LT | 31.7× | 0.94% | ₹5.58L Cr |
| ADANIPORTS | 29.4× | 0.44% | ₹3.90L Cr |
| IRB | 24.2× | 0.79% | ₹23,770 Cr |
| GMRAIRPORT | 544.0× | 0.00% | ₹1.13L Cr |
| RELIANCE | 24.2× | 0.45% | ₹18.06L Cr |
| TCS | 16.5× | 2.61% | ₹8.87L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED (RVNL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Infrastructure sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹48,660 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the RVNL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
RVNL analysis, FAQs
Is RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED (RVNL) a good buy?
On the numbers, RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED (RVNL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 55.6× earnings, ROE of 9.0%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is RVNL overvalued or undervalued?
RVNL trades at 55.6× earnings versus a peer median of 29.4×, so it screens richer than its Infrastructure peers.
What is the RVNL share price target for 2031?
RVNL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹286, with an 80% range of ₹88-₹934 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability RVNL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of RVNL reaching ₹467 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.
What is the bull case for RVNL?
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in RVNL?
RVNL's P/E of 55.6x is lower than 23% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. RVNL's return on equity of 9.0% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.