RVNL
RVNL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
RVNL (RVNL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is RVNL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
RVNL (RVNL) trades at ₹246,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100.
On the numbers, RVNL (RVNL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 58.7× earnings, ROE of 9.0%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
RVNL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is RVNL overvalued? RVNL P/E vs its Infrastructure
RVNL's P/E of 58.7× sits above the Infrastructure peer median of 32.5×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.70% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.70%.
RVNL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of RVNL history (-27%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RVNL 2027 | ₹91 | ₹168 | ₹304 | -31% |
| RVNL 2028 | ₹49 | ₹115 | ₹267 | -53% |
| RVNL 2029 | ₹28 | ₹78 | ₹219 | -68% |
| RVNL 2030 | ₹16 | ₹54 | ₹175 | -78% |
| RVNL 2031 | ₹9 | ₹37 | ₹137 | -85% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability RVNL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for RVNL
- RVNL is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹219.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 58.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 9.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹28.
RVNL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years RVNL compounded at -27%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹91–₹304, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
RVNL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
RVNL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds RVNL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the RVNL price target & forecast page.
RVNL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. RVNL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
RVNL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RVNL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 34.9% | 2.9× |
| Zerodha | 29.7% | 3.4× |
| Groww | 29.8% | 3.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 27.9% | 3.6× |
Compare every broker on the RVNL MTF page.
RVNL vs peers,Infrastructure comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| RVNL (this stock) | 58.7× | 0.70% | ₹51,308 Cr |
| LT | 35.2× | 0.90% | ₹5.78L Cr |
| ADANIPORTS | 32.5× | 0.41% | ₹4.21L Cr |
| IRB | 29.8× | 0.71% | ₹26,197 Cr |
| GMRAIRPORT | 549.0× | 0.00% | ₹1.14L Cr |
| RELIANCE | 23.1× | 0.45% | ₹17.95L Cr |
| TCS | 14.7× | 3.01% | ₹7.69L Cr |
About RVNL: sector, index & market-cap context
RVNL (RVNL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Infrastructure sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹51,308 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the RVNL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of RVNL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
RVNL analysis, FAQs
Is RVNL (RVNL) a good buy?
On the numbers, RVNL (RVNL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 58.7× earnings, ROE of 9.0%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is RVNL overvalued or undervalued?
RVNL trades at 58.7× earnings versus a peer median of 32.5×, so it screens richer than its Infrastructure peers.
What is the RVNL share price target for 2031?
RVNL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹37, with an 80% range of ₹9–₹137 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability RVNL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of RVNL reaching ₹488 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for RVNL?
RVNL is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in RVNL?
A rich 58.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 9.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.