Case study

RVNL

RVNL

High-risk on the numbers1y model -31.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

RVNL (RVNL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is RVNL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

RVNL (RVNL) trades at ₹246,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100.

On the numbers, RVNL (RVNL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 58.7× earnings, ROE of 9.0%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

RVNL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹51,308 Cr
Current price
₹246
P/E ratio
58.7×
P/B ratio
5.22×
Book value
₹47
Dividend yield
0.70%
ROCE
10.8%
ROE
9.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is RVNL overvalued? RVNL P/E vs its Infrastructure

RVNL's P/E of 58.7× sits above the Infrastructure peer median of 32.5×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.70% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.70%.

RVNL P/E
58.7×
Peer median P/E
32.5×
RVNL div yield
0.70%
Peer median yield
0.70%

RVNL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of RVNL history (-27%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
RVNL 2027₹91₹168₹304-31%
RVNL 2028₹49₹115₹267-53%
RVNL 2029₹28₹78₹219-68%
RVNL 2030₹16₹54₹175-78%
RVNL 2031₹9₹37₹137-85%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability RVNL goes up, or doubles?

21%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
3%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹488 within 5 years

The bull case for RVNL

  • RVNL is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹219.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 58.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 9.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹28.

RVNL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years RVNL compounded at -27%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹91₹304, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

RVNL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
31.0%
80% range₹91–₹304
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
68.0%
80% range₹28–₹219
P(price ↑)8%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
85.0%
80% range₹9–₹137
P(price ↑)3%
P(price 2×)1%

RVNL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
RVNL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds RVNL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the RVNL price target & forecast page.

RVNL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. RVNL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

RVNL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RVNL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox34.9%2.9×
Zerodha29.7%3.4×
Groww29.8%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST27.9%3.6×

Compare every broker on the RVNL MTF page.

RVNL vs peers,Infrastructure comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
RVNL (this stock)58.7×0.70%₹51,308 Cr
LT35.2×0.90%₹5.78L Cr
ADANIPORTS32.5×0.41%₹4.21L Cr
IRB29.8×0.71%₹26,197 Cr
GMRAIRPORT549.0×0.00%₹1.14L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr

About RVNL: sector, index & market-cap context

RVNL (RVNL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Infrastructure sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹51,308 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the RVNL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of RVNL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

RVNL analysis, FAQs

Is RVNL (RVNL) a good buy?

On the numbers, RVNL (RVNL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 58.7× earnings, ROE of 9.0%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is RVNL overvalued or undervalued?

RVNL trades at 58.7× earnings versus a peer median of 32.5×, so it screens richer than its Infrastructure peers.

What is the RVNL share price target for 2031?

RVNL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹37, with an 80% range of ₹9₹137 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability RVNL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of RVNL reaching ₹488 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for RVNL?

RVNL is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in RVNL?

A rich 58.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 9.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on RVNL