Case study

LT

Larsen & Toubro Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +9.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

58Score

Larsen & Toubro Limited (LT) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is LT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Larsen & Toubro Limited (LT) trades at ₹4,056,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.

On the numbers, Larsen & Toubro Limited (LT) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing premium at 31.7× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on LT

The puzzle here is paying 35 times earnings for a heavy engineering house earning roughly 16 percent on equity and under 15 percent on capital. Those returns are respectable for an infrastructure builder, but they are not the kind of high-margin compounding that usually justifies a multiple this rich, so the price is leaning hard on the order book and future execution. A middling Piotroski score of 4 suggests the recent financial trend is not pristine, which matters when expectations are stretched. Watch whether returns on capital climb toward the valuation or the valuation drifts toward the returns.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.

LT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹5.58L Cr
Current price
₹4,056
P/E ratio
31.7×
P/B ratio
5.11×
Book value
₹794
Dividend yield
0.94%
ROCE
14.6%
ROE
15.9%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How LT ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a promoter holding figure for LT, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is LT overvalued? LT P/E vs its Infrastructure

LT's P/E of 31.7× sits above the Infrastructure peer median of 29.4×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.94% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.73%.

LT P/E
31.7×
Peer median P/E
29.4×
LT div yield
0.94%
Peer median yield
0.73%

LT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of LT history (14%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
LT 2027₹3,219₹4,429₹6,092+9%
LT 2028₹3,070₹4,836₹7,617+19%
LT 2029₹3,005₹5,280₹9,279+30%
LT 2030₹3,035₹5,766₹10,953+42%
LT 2031₹3,078₹6,296₹12,878+55%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability LT goes up, or doubles?

64%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
78%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
32%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹8,112 within 5 years

The bull case for LT

  • LT's return on equity of 15.9% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹4,429 (+9%).
  • Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹9,279.

The bear case & risks

  • LT's P/E of 31.7x is lower than 44% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3,005.

LT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years LT compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,219-₹6,092, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

LT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.2%
80% range₹3,219-₹6,092
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
30.2%
80% range₹3,005-₹9,279
P(price ↑)73%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
55.2%
80% range₹3,078-₹12,878
P(price ↑)78%
P(price 2×)32%

LT price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
LT simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds LT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the LT price target & forecast page.

LT Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. LT scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

LT MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox24.32%4.1×
Zerodha23.70%4.2×
Groww23.72%4.2×
Dhan22.50%4.4×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.79%4.8×
Paytm Money20.82%4.8×
Pocketful28.04%3.6×
Fyers27.78%3.6×
Anand Rathi27.79%3.6×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India27.86%3.6×

Compare every broker on the LT MTF page.

LT vs peers,Infrastructure comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
LT (this stock)31.7×0.94%₹5.58L Cr
ADANIPORTS29.4×0.44%₹3.90L Cr
RVNL55.6×0.73%₹48,660 Cr
IRB24.2×0.79%₹23,770 Cr
GMRAIRPORT544.0×0.00%₹1.13L Cr
RELIANCE24.2×0.45%₹18.06L Cr
TCS16.5×2.61%₹8.87L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Larsen & Toubro Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Larsen & Toubro Limited (LT) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Infrastructure sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹5.58L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the LT Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Larsen & Toubro Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

LT analysis, FAQs

Is Larsen & Toubro Limited (LT) a good buy?

On the numbers, Larsen & Toubro Limited (LT) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing premium at 31.7× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is LT overvalued or undervalued?

LT trades at 31.7× earnings versus a peer median of 29.4×, so it screens richer than its Infrastructure peers.

What is the LT share price target for 2031?

LT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹6,296, with an 80% range of ₹3,078-₹12,878 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability LT doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of LT reaching ₹8,112 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.

What is the bull case for LT?

LT's return on equity of 15.9% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹4,429 (+9%). Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in LT?

LT's P/E of 31.7x is lower than 44% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on LT