ASHOKLEY
Ashok Leyland
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Ashok Leyland (ASHOKLEY) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ASHOKLEY a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Ashok Leyland (ASHOKLEY) trades at ₹157,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100.
On the numbers, Ashok Leyland (ASHOKLEY) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 28.1%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ASHOKLEY fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ASHOKLEY overvalued? ASHOKLEY P/E vs its Auto
ASHOKLEY's P/E of 24.8× sits below the Auto peer median of 26.4×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 2.23% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.08%.
ASHOKLEY share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ASHOKLEY history (14%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASHOKLEY 2027 | ₹113 | ₹171 | ₹259 | +9% |
| ASHOKLEY 2028 | ₹103 | ₹186 | ₹336 | +19% |
| ASHOKLEY 2029 | ₹98 | ₹202 | ₹426 | +28% |
| ASHOKLEY 2030 | ₹95 | ₹220 | ₹516 | +40% |
| ASHOKLEY 2031 | ₹94 | ₹237 | ₹632 | +51% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ASHOKLEY goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ASHOKLEY
- A 24.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- High return on equity (28.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Pays a 2.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹171 (+9%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹426.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹98.
ASHOKLEY volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ASHOKLEY compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹113–₹259, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ASHOKLEY price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ASHOKLEY price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ASHOKLEY hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ASHOKLEY price target & forecast page.
ASHOKLEY Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ASHOKLEY scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
ASHOKLEY MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ASHOKLEY with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 32.4% | 3.1× |
| Zerodha | 27.6% | 3.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 25.4% | 3.9× |
Compare every broker on the ASHOKLEY MTF page.
ASHOKLEY vs peers,Auto comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASHOKLEY (this stock) | 24.8× | 2.23% | ₹92,308 Cr |
| MARUTI | 28.8× | 1.04% | ₹4.22L Cr |
| EICHERMOT | 37.6× | 0.92% | ₹2.09L Cr |
| HEROMOTOCO | 17.1× | 3.71% | ₹99,728 Cr |
| M&M | 21.5× | 1.08% | ₹3.81L Cr |
| BAJAJ-AUTO | 26.4× | 1.47% | ₹2.85L Cr |
| TVSMOTOR | 54.4× | 0.34% | ₹1.66L Cr |
About Ashok Leyland: sector, index & market-cap context
Ashok Leyland (ASHOKLEY) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Auto sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹92,308 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the ASHOKLEY Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ashok Leyland's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ASHOKLEY analysis, FAQs
Is Ashok Leyland (ASHOKLEY) a good buy?
On the numbers, Ashok Leyland (ASHOKLEY) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 28.1%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ASHOKLEY overvalued or undervalued?
ASHOKLEY trades at 24.8× earnings versus a peer median of 26.4×, so it screens cheaper than its Auto peers.
What is the ASHOKLEY share price target for 2031?
ASHOKLEY's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹237, with an 80% range of ₹94–₹632 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ASHOKLEY doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ASHOKLEY reaching ₹314 (2×) within 5 years is 36%.
What is the bull case for ASHOKLEY?
A 24.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (28.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Pays a 2.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in ASHOKLEY?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.