Case study

ASHOKLEY

Ashok Leyland Limited

Mixed signals1y model +5.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

54Score

Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ASHOKLEY a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) trades at ₹178,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100.

On the numbers, Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 28.7× earnings, ROE of 27.4%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ASHOKLEY fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.04L Cr
Current price
₹178
P/E ratio
28.7×
P/B ratio
7.36×
Book value
₹24
Dividend yield
1.97%
ROCE
13.6%
ROE
27.4%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How ASHOKLEY ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is ASHOKLEY overvalued? ASHOKLEY P/E vs its Auto

ASHOKLEY's P/E of 28.7× sits above the Auto peer median of 28.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.97% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.02%.

ASHOKLEY P/E
28.7×
Peer median P/E
28.7×
ASHOKLEY div yield
1.97%
Peer median yield
1.02%

ASHOKLEY share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ASHOKLEY history (14%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ASHOKLEY 2027₹123₹187₹285+6%
ASHOKLEY 2028₹108₹198₹361+11%
ASHOKLEY 2029₹100₹209₹437+18%
ASHOKLEY 2030₹95₹221₹511+24%
ASHOKLEY 2031₹91₹233₹596+31%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ASHOKLEY goes up, or doubles?

57%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
64%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹355 within 5 years

The bull case for ASHOKLEY

  • ASHOKLEY's return on equity of 27.4% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹437.

The bear case & risks

  • ASHOKLEY's P/E of 28.7x is lower than 48% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹100.

ASHOKLEY volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years ASHOKLEY compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹123-₹285, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ASHOKLEY price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.6%
80% range₹123-₹285
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
17.7%
80% range₹100-₹437
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
31.2%
80% range₹91-₹596
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)28%

ASHOKLEY price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ASHOKLEY simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ASHOKLEY hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ASHOKLEY price target & forecast page.

ASHOKLEY Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ASHOKLEY scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

ASHOKLEY MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ASHOKLEY with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox28.76%3.5×
Zerodha27.50%3.6×
Groww27.50%3.6×
Dhan25.22%4.0×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST25.19%4.0×
Paytm Money25.31%4.0×
Pocketful32.32%3.1×
Anand Rathi32.22%3.1×
Bajaj Broking26.00%3.8×
Share India32.31%3.1×

Compare every broker on the ASHOKLEY MTF page.

ASHOKLEY vs peers,Auto comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ASHOKLEY (this stock)28.7×1.97%₹1.04L Cr
MARUTI30.8×1.00%₹4.41L Cr
EICHERMOT37.8×1.02%₹2.20L Cr
HEROMOTOCO20.7×3.23%₹1.15L Cr
M&M22.7×0.94%₹4.35L Cr
BAJAJ-AUTO27.2×1.29%₹3.20L Cr
TVSMOTOR61.0×0.27%₹2.11L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Ashok Leyland Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Auto sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.04L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ASHOKLEY Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ashok Leyland Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ASHOKLEY analysis, FAQs

Is Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 28.7× earnings, ROE of 27.4%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ASHOKLEY overvalued or undervalued?

ASHOKLEY trades at 28.7× earnings versus a peer median of 28.7×, so it screens richer than its Auto peers.

What is the ASHOKLEY share price target for 2031?

ASHOKLEY's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹233, with an 80% range of ₹91-₹596 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ASHOKLEY doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ASHOKLEY reaching ₹355 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for ASHOKLEY?

ASHOKLEY's return on equity of 27.4% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in ASHOKLEY?

ASHOKLEY's P/E of 28.7x is lower than 48% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on ASHOKLEY