BAJAJ-AUTO
Bajaj Auto Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BAJAJ-AUTO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) trades at ₹11,662,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100.
On the numbers, Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 29.2%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
BAJAJ-AUTO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How BAJAJ-AUTO ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- BAJAJ-AUTO's market cap of 3.20L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJ-AUTO's book value of ₹1,389 ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJ-AUTO's promoter holding of 55.0% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJ-AUTO's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 21.0% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJ-AUTO's 3-year revenue growth of 20.0% ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJ-AUTO's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.58x is lower than 31% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is BAJAJ-AUTO overvalued? BAJAJ-AUTO P/E vs its Auto
BAJAJ-AUTO's P/E of 27.2× sits below the Auto peer median of 28.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.29% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.02%.
BAJAJ-AUTO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BAJAJ-AUTO history (14%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAJAJ-AUTO 2027 | ₹8,953 | ₹12,529 | ₹17,532 | +7% |
| BAJAJ-AUTO 2028 | ₹8,434 | ₹13,460 | ₹21,482 | +15% |
| BAJAJ-AUTO 2029 | ₹8,092 | ₹14,461 | ₹25,841 | +24% |
| BAJAJ-AUTO 2030 | ₹8,029 | ₹15,536 | ₹30,060 | +33% |
| BAJAJ-AUTO 2031 | ₹7,946 | ₹16,691 | ₹35,057 | +43% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BAJAJ-AUTO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BAJAJ-AUTO
- BAJAJ-AUTO's return on equity of 29.2% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJ-AUTO's return on capital employed of 28.2% ranks in the 91st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹12,529 (+7%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹25,841.
The bear case & risks
- BAJAJ-AUTO's P/E of 27.2x is lower than 50% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A steep 8.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹8,092.
BAJAJ-AUTO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years BAJAJ-AUTO compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹8,953-₹17,532, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BAJAJ-AUTO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BAJAJ-AUTO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BAJAJ-AUTO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BAJAJ-AUTO price target & forecast page.
BAJAJ-AUTO Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BAJAJ-AUTO scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
BAJAJ-AUTO MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BAJAJ-AUTO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 23.88% | 4.2× |
| Zerodha | 23.30% | 4.3× |
| Groww | 23.31% | 4.3× |
| Dhan | 22.00% | 4.5× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 20.37% | 4.9× |
| Paytm Money | 20.38% | 4.9× |
| Pocketful | 27.07% | 3.7× |
| Fyers | 27.78% | 3.6× |
| Anand Rathi | 27.35% | 3.7× |
| Share India | 27.35% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the BAJAJ-AUTO MTF page.
BAJAJ-AUTO vs peers,Auto comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAJAJ-AUTO (this stock) | 27.2× | 1.29% | ₹3.20L Cr |
| MARUTI | 30.8× | 1.00% | ₹4.41L Cr |
| EICHERMOT | 37.8× | 1.02% | ₹2.20L Cr |
| HEROMOTOCO | 20.7× | 3.23% | ₹1.15L Cr |
| M&M | 22.7× | 0.94% | ₹4.35L Cr |
| TVSMOTOR | 61.0× | 0.27% | ₹2.11L Cr |
| ASHOKLEY | 28.7× | 1.97% | ₹1.04L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Bajaj Auto Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Auto sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.20L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the BAJAJ-AUTO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bajaj Auto Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BAJAJ-AUTO analysis, FAQs
Is Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 29.2%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BAJAJ-AUTO overvalued or undervalued?
BAJAJ-AUTO trades at 27.2× earnings versus a peer median of 28.7×, so it screens cheaper than its Auto peers.
What is the BAJAJ-AUTO share price target for 2031?
BAJAJ-AUTO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹16,691, with an 80% range of ₹7,946-₹35,057 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BAJAJ-AUTO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BAJAJ-AUTO reaching ₹23,324 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.
What is the bull case for BAJAJ-AUTO?
BAJAJ-AUTO's return on equity of 29.2% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. BAJAJ-AUTO's return on capital employed of 28.2% ranks in the 91st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹12,529 (+7%).
What are the risks in BAJAJ-AUTO?
BAJAJ-AUTO's P/E of 27.2x is lower than 50% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 8.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.