HEROMOTOCO
Hero MotoCorp
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Hero MotoCorp (HEROMOTOCO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HEROMOTOCO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Hero MotoCorp (HEROMOTOCO) trades at ₹4,984,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100.
On the numbers, Hero MotoCorp (HEROMOTOCO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.1× earnings, ROE of 28.5%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HEROMOTOCO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is HEROMOTOCO overvalued? HEROMOTOCO P/E vs its Auto
HEROMOTOCO's P/E of 17.1× sits below the Auto peer median of 26.4×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 3.71% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.08%.
HEROMOTOCO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HEROMOTOCO history (-5%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEROMOTOCO 2027 | ₹3,274 | ₹4,554 | ₹6,389 | -8% |
| HEROMOTOCO 2028 | ₹2,622 | ₹4,169 | ₹6,682 | -16% |
| HEROMOTOCO 2029 | ₹2,162 | ₹3,838 | ₹6,734 | -23% |
| HEROMOTOCO 2030 | ₹1,811 | ₹3,518 | ₹6,821 | -29% |
| HEROMOTOCO 2031 | ₹1,543 | ₹3,231 | ₹6,732 | -35% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HEROMOTOCO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HEROMOTOCO
- A 17.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- High return on equity (28.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (35.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 3.7% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹6,734.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,162.
HEROMOTOCO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years HEROMOTOCO compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,274–₹6,389, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HEROMOTOCO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HEROMOTOCO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HEROMOTOCO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HEROMOTOCO price target & forecast page.
HEROMOTOCO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HEROMOTOCO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
HEROMOTOCO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HEROMOTOCO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 28.2% | 3.5× |
| Zerodha | 24.1% | 4.1× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.5% | 4.4× |
Compare every broker on the HEROMOTOCO MTF page.
HEROMOTOCO vs peers,Auto comparison
About Hero MotoCorp: sector, index & market-cap context
Hero MotoCorp (HEROMOTOCO) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Auto sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹99,728 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the HEROMOTOCO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hero MotoCorp's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HEROMOTOCO analysis, FAQs
Is Hero MotoCorp (HEROMOTOCO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Hero MotoCorp (HEROMOTOCO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.1× earnings, ROE of 28.5%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HEROMOTOCO overvalued or undervalued?
HEROMOTOCO trades at 17.1× earnings versus a peer median of 26.4×, so it screens cheaper than its Auto peers.
What is the HEROMOTOCO share price target for 2031?
HEROMOTOCO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,231, with an 80% range of ₹1,543–₹6,732 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HEROMOTOCO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HEROMOTOCO reaching ₹9,950 (2×) within 5 years is 3%.
What is the bull case for HEROMOTOCO?
A 17.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (28.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (35.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in HEROMOTOCO?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.