BAJAJHFL
Bajaj Housing Finance Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BAJAJHFL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BAJAJHFL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BAJAJHFL) trades at ₹86,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.
On the numbers, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BAJAJHFL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 26.4× earnings, ROE of 12.1%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
BAJAJHFL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How BAJAJHFL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- BAJAJHFL's market cap of 71,483 Cr ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJHFL's book value of ₹27 ranks in the 22nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJHFL's promoter holding of 86.7% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJHFL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 27.0% ranks in the 66th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- BAJAJHFL's 3-year revenue growth of 25.0% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for BAJAJHFL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is BAJAJHFL overvalued? BAJAJHFL P/E vs its NBFC
BAJAJHFL's P/E of 26.4× sits above the NBFC peer median of 23.2×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
BAJAJHFL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.9y of BAJAJHFL history (-35%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAJAJHFL 2027 | ₹61 | ₹90 | ₹132 | +4% |
| BAJAJHFL 2028 | ₹54 | ₹94 | ₹161 | +9% |
| BAJAJHFL 2029 | ₹50 | ₹98 | ₹190 | +14% |
| BAJAJHFL 2030 | ₹48 | ₹102 | ₹217 | +19% |
| BAJAJHFL 2031 | ₹46 | ₹107 | ₹248 | +25% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BAJAJHFL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BAJAJHFL
- BAJAJHFL's return on equity of 12.1% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹190.
The bear case & risks
- BAJAJHFL's P/E of 26.4x is lower than 51% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹50.
BAJAJHFL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 1.9 years BAJAJHFL compounded at -35%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹61-₹132, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BAJAJHFL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BAJAJHFL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BAJAJHFL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BAJAJHFL price target & forecast page.
BAJAJHFL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BAJAJHFL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.
BAJAJHFL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BAJAJHFL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.98% | 3.7× |
| Zerodha | 26.96% | 3.7× |
| Groww | 27.07% | 3.7× |
| Dhan | 26.96% | 3.7× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 26.95% | 3.7× |
| Paytm Money | 27.38% | 3.7× |
| Pocketful | 27.23% | 3.7× |
| Fyers | 27.03% | 3.7× |
| Anand Rathi | 26.96% | 3.7× |
| Share India | 27.05% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the BAJAJHFL MTF page.
BAJAJHFL vs peers,NBFC comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAJAJHFL (this stock) | 26.4× | - | ₹71,483 Cr |
| BAJFINANCE | 32.8× | 0.50% | ₹6.71L Cr |
| BAJAJFINSV | 31.3× | 0.07% | ₹3.22L Cr |
| RECLTD | 6.0× | 5.05% | ₹96,639 Cr |
| IRFC | 16.1× | 2.37% | ₹1.16L Cr |
| PFC | 5.3× | 4.42% | ₹1.39L Cr |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 23.2× | 0.97% | ₹2.62L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Bajaj Housing Finance Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BAJAJHFL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹71,483 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the BAJAJHFL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bajaj Housing Finance Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BAJAJHFL analysis, FAQs
Is Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BAJAJHFL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BAJAJHFL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 26.4× earnings, ROE of 12.1%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BAJAJHFL overvalued or undervalued?
BAJAJHFL trades at 26.4× earnings versus a peer median of 23.2×, so it screens richer than its NBFC peers.
What is the BAJAJHFL share price target for 2031?
BAJAJHFL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹107, with an 80% range of ₹46-₹248 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BAJAJHFL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BAJAJHFL reaching ₹172 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.
What is the bull case for BAJAJHFL?
BAJAJHFL's return on equity of 12.1% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in BAJAJHFL?
BAJAJHFL's P/E of 26.4x is lower than 51% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.