Case study

BAJAJFINSV

Bajaj Finserv Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +10.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

58Score

Bajaj Finserv Limited (BAJAJFINSV) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BAJAJFINSV a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Bajaj Finserv Limited (BAJAJFINSV) trades at ₹2,009,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.

On the numbers, Bajaj Finserv Limited (BAJAJFINSV) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing premium at 31.3× earnings, ROE of 13.2%, a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on BAJAJFINSV

The puzzle here is the holding-company discount in reverse: Bajaj Finserv trades at a near-29 P/E, yet its 13.2% ROE and 10.5% ROCE are merely decent for a financial, not exceptional. You are paying a growth multiple for what the blended numbers call a steady earner, with the gap between return on capital and the price suggesting the market is valuing the lending and insurance subsidiaries more than the consolidated ratios show. The token 0.08% yield confirms this is reinvestment, not payout. Watch whether the Piotroski 4 firms up, since middling financial quality with a premium tag leaves little room for slippage.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.

BAJAJFINSV fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3.22L Cr
Current price
₹2,009
P/E ratio
31.3×
P/B ratio
4.13×
Book value
₹487
Dividend yield
0.07%
ROCE
10.6%
ROE
13.2%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How BAJAJFINSV ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is BAJAJFINSV overvalued? BAJAJFINSV P/E vs its NBFC

BAJAJFINSV's P/E of 31.3× sits above the NBFC peer median of 23.2×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.07% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.97%.

BAJAJFINSV P/E
31.3×
Peer median P/E
23.2×
BAJAJFINSV div yield
0.07%
Peer median yield
0.97%

BAJAJFINSV share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BAJAJFINSV history (21%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BAJAJFINSV 2027₹1,610₹2,210₹3,033+10%
BAJAJFINSV 2028₹1,548₹2,430₹3,816+21%
BAJAJFINSV 2029₹1,551₹2,673₹4,609+33%
BAJAJFINSV 2030₹1,561₹2,941₹5,541+46%
BAJAJFINSV 2031₹1,606₹3,234₹6,515+61%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BAJAJFINSV goes up, or doubles?

65%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
81%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
35%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹4,018 within 5 years

The bull case for BAJAJFINSV

  • BAJAJFINSV's return on equity of 13.2% ranks in the 65th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 65% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,210 (+10%).
  • Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,609.

The bear case & risks

  • BAJAJFINSV's P/E of 31.3x is lower than 44% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,551.

BAJAJFINSV volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years BAJAJFINSV compounded at 21%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,610-₹3,033, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BAJAJFINSV price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.0%
80% range₹1,610-₹3,033
P(price ↑)65%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
33.1%
80% range₹1,551-₹4,609
P(price ↑)75%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
61.0%
80% range₹1,606-₹6,515
P(price ↑)81%
P(price 2×)35%

BAJAJFINSV price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BAJAJFINSV simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BAJAJFINSV hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BAJAJFINSV price target & forecast page.

BAJAJFINSV Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BAJAJFINSV scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

BAJAJFINSV MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BAJAJFINSV with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.92%4.2×
Zerodha23.50%4.3×
Groww23.40%4.3×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak Neo20.53%4.9×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST20.49%4.9×
Pocketful27.15%3.7×
Fyers27.78%3.6×
Anand Rathi27.55%3.6×
Share India27.49%3.6×

Compare every broker on the BAJAJFINSV MTF page.

BAJAJFINSV vs peers,NBFC comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
BAJAJFINSV (this stock)31.3×0.07%₹3.22L Cr
BAJFINANCE32.8×0.50%₹6.71L Cr
RECLTD6.0×5.05%₹96,639 Cr
IRFC16.1×2.37%₹1.16L Cr
PFC5.3×4.42%₹1.39L Cr
SHRIRAMFIN23.2×0.97%₹2.62L Cr
CHOLAFIN27.7×0.11%₹1.59L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Bajaj Finserv Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Bajaj Finserv Limited (BAJAJFINSV) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.22L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BAJAJFINSV Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bajaj Finserv Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BAJAJFINSV analysis, FAQs

Is Bajaj Finserv Limited (BAJAJFINSV) a good buy?

On the numbers, Bajaj Finserv Limited (BAJAJFINSV) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing premium at 31.3× earnings, ROE of 13.2%, a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BAJAJFINSV overvalued or undervalued?

BAJAJFINSV trades at 31.3× earnings versus a peer median of 23.2×, so it screens richer than its NBFC peers.

What is the BAJAJFINSV share price target for 2031?

BAJAJFINSV's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,234, with an 80% range of ₹1,606-₹6,515 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BAJAJFINSV doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BAJAJFINSV reaching ₹4,018 (2×) within 5 years is 35%.

What is the bull case for BAJAJFINSV?

BAJAJFINSV's return on equity of 13.2% ranks in the 65th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 65% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,210 (+10%). Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in BAJAJFINSV?

BAJAJFINSV's P/E of 31.3x is lower than 44% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

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