Case study

PFC

Power Finance Corp

Screens attractive1y model -11.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Power Finance Corp (PFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is PFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Power Finance Corp (PFC) trades at ₹441,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 70/100.

On the numbers, Power Finance Corp (PFC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 70/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.6× earnings, ROE of 20.7%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

PFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.45L Cr
Current price
₹441
P/E ratio
5.6×
P/B ratio
1.09×
Book value
₹403
Dividend yield
3.58%
ROCE
9.7%
ROE
20.7%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is PFC overvalued? PFC P/E vs its NBFC

PFC's P/E of 5.6× sits below the NBFC peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 3.58% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.83%.

PFC P/E
5.6×
Peer median P/E
25.6×
PFC div yield
3.58%
Peer median yield
0.83%

PFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PFC history (-6%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
PFC 2027₹251₹383₹586-11%
PFC 2028₹185₹341₹624-21%
PFC 2029₹142₹302₹635-30%
PFC 2030₹112₹271₹631-37%
PFC 2031₹90₹240₹615-44%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability PFC goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
22%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
4%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹862 within 5 years

The bull case for PFC

  • Trades at just 5.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.09×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • High return on equity (20.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Pays a 3.6% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹635.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹142.

PFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years PFC compounded at -6%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹251₹586, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

PFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.2%
80% range₹251–₹586
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
30.0%
80% range₹142–₹635
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)4%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
44.3%
80% range₹90–₹615
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)4%

PFC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
PFC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds PFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the PFC price target & forecast page.

PFC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. PFC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

PFC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.8%3.2×
Zerodha26.3%3.8×
DhanCHEAPEST23.8%4.2×

Compare every broker on the PFC MTF page.

PFC vs peers,NBFC comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
PFC (this stock)5.6×3.58%₹1.45L Cr
BAJFINANCE31.4×0.56%₹6.03L Cr
BAJAJFINSV28.8×0.08%₹2.86L Cr
RECLTD6.0×4.87%₹97,417 Cr
SHRIRAMFIN23.3×1.09%₹2.33L Cr
CHOLAFIN28.0×0.12%₹1.46L Cr

About Power Finance Corp: sector, index & market-cap context

Power Finance Corp (PFC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.45L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the PFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Power Finance Corp's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

PFC analysis, FAQs

Is Power Finance Corp (PFC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Power Finance Corp (PFC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 70/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.6× earnings, ROE of 20.7%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is PFC overvalued or undervalued?

PFC trades at 5.6× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens cheaper than its NBFC peers.

What is the PFC share price target for 2031?

PFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹240, with an 80% range of ₹90₹615 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability PFC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of PFC reaching ₹862 (2×) within 5 years is 4%.

What is the bull case for PFC?

Trades at just 5.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.09×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. High return on equity (20.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.

What are the risks in PFC?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on PFC