Case study

BAJFINANCE

Bajaj Finance Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +9.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

62Score

Bajaj Finance Limited (BAJFINANCE) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BAJFINANCE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Bajaj Finance Limited (BAJFINANCE) trades at ₹1,078,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100.

On the numbers, Bajaj Finance Limited (BAJFINANCE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing premium at 32.8× earnings, ROE of 18.2%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BAJFINANCE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹6.71L Cr
Current price
₹1,078
P/E ratio
32.8×
P/B ratio
5.89×
Book value
₹183
Dividend yield
0.50%
ROCE
10.9%
ROE
18.2%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How BAJFINANCE ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for BAJFINANCE, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is BAJFINANCE overvalued? BAJFINANCE P/E vs its NBFC

BAJFINANCE's P/E of 32.8× sits above the NBFC peer median of 23.2×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.50% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.97%.

BAJFINANCE P/E
32.8×
Peer median P/E
23.2×
BAJFINANCE div yield
0.50%
Peer median yield
0.97%

BAJFINANCE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BAJFINANCE history (24%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BAJFINANCE 2027₹825₹1,175₹1,675+9%
BAJFINANCE 2028₹764₹1,282₹2,151+19%
BAJFINANCE 2029₹742₹1,397₹2,631+30%
BAJFINANCE 2030₹733₹1,523₹3,167+41%
BAJFINANCE 2031₹729₹1,661₹3,785+54%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BAJFINANCE goes up, or doubles?

62%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
75%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
35%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,156 within 5 years

The bull case for BAJFINANCE

  • BAJFINANCE's return on equity of 18.2% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,175 (+9%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,631.

The bear case & risks

  • BAJFINANCE's P/E of 32.8x is lower than 42% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹742.

BAJFINANCE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years BAJFINANCE compounded at 24%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹825-₹1,675, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BAJFINANCE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.0%
80% range₹825-₹1,675
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.6%
80% range₹742-₹2,631
P(price ↑)70%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
54.1%
80% range₹729-₹3,785
P(price ↑)75%
P(price 2×)35%

BAJFINANCE price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BAJFINANCE simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BAJFINANCE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BAJFINANCE price target & forecast page.

BAJFINANCE Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BAJFINANCE scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

BAJFINANCE MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BAJFINANCE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox25.96%3.9×
Zerodha25.40%3.9×
Groww25.16%4.0×
Dhan23.00%4.3×
Kotak Neo22.73%4.4×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST22.56%4.4×
Pocketful29.07%3.4×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi29.75%3.4×
Share India29.54%3.4×

Compare every broker on the BAJFINANCE MTF page.

BAJFINANCE vs peers,NBFC comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
BAJFINANCE (this stock)32.8×0.50%₹6.71L Cr
BAJAJFINSV31.3×0.07%₹3.22L Cr
RECLTD6.0×5.05%₹96,639 Cr
IRFC16.1×2.37%₹1.16L Cr
PFC5.3×4.42%₹1.39L Cr
SHRIRAMFIN23.2×0.97%₹2.62L Cr
CHOLAFIN27.7×0.11%₹1.59L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Bajaj Finance Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Bajaj Finance Limited (BAJFINANCE) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹6.71L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BAJFINANCE Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bajaj Finance Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BAJFINANCE analysis, FAQs

Is Bajaj Finance Limited (BAJFINANCE) a good buy?

On the numbers, Bajaj Finance Limited (BAJFINANCE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing premium at 32.8× earnings, ROE of 18.2%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BAJFINANCE overvalued or undervalued?

BAJFINANCE trades at 32.8× earnings versus a peer median of 23.2×, so it screens richer than its NBFC peers.

What is the BAJFINANCE share price target for 2031?

BAJFINANCE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,661, with an 80% range of ₹729-₹3,785 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BAJFINANCE doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BAJFINANCE reaching ₹2,156 (2×) within 5 years is 35%.

What is the bull case for BAJFINANCE?

BAJFINANCE's return on equity of 18.2% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,175 (+9%).

What are the risks in BAJFINANCE?

BAJFINANCE's P/E of 32.8x is lower than 42% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on BAJFINANCE