BAJFINANCE
Bajaj Finance
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BAJFINANCE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) trades at ₹968,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100.
On the numbers, Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing premium at 31.4× earnings, ROE of 18.2%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on BAJFINANCE
The whole debate sits in one number: a P/E above 31 for a lender, which is the market paying up front for years of compounding it expects to keep coming. The 18.2% ROE backs that quality story, and the gap to a 10.8% ROCE is just the leverage every NBFC runs on, so read the two together rather than in isolation. What complicates the clean narrative is a Piotroski score of 4 out of 9, soft for a name carrying this kind of premium. Watch whether growth and credit quality keep earning that multiple, because at this price the stock has little room to merely meet expectations.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
BAJFINANCE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is BAJFINANCE overvalued? BAJFINANCE P/E vs its NBFC
BAJFINANCE's P/E of 31.4× sits above the NBFC peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.56% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.83%.
BAJFINANCE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of BAJFINANCE history (16%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAJFINANCE 2027 | ₹761 | ₹1,085 | ₹1,538 | +13% |
| BAJFINANCE 2028 | ₹740 | ₹1,216 | ₹1,990 | +26% |
| BAJFINANCE 2029 | ₹749 | ₹1,364 | ₹2,518 | +42% |
| BAJFINANCE 2030 | ₹760 | ₹1,552 | ₹3,135 | +61% |
| BAJFINANCE 2031 | ₹786 | ₹1,750 | ₹3,849 | +82% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BAJFINANCE goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BAJFINANCE
- High return on equity (18.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,085 (+13%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,518.
The bear case & risks
- At 31.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹749.
BAJFINANCE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years BAJFINANCE compounded at 16%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹761–₹1,538, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BAJFINANCE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BAJFINANCE price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BAJFINANCE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BAJFINANCE price target & forecast page.
BAJFINANCE Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. BAJFINANCE scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
BAJFINANCE MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BAJFINANCE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.2% | 3.4× |
| Zerodha | 24.9% | 4.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.0% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the BAJFINANCE MTF page.
BAJFINANCE vs peers,NBFC comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAJFINANCE (this stock) | 31.4× | 0.56% | ₹6.03L Cr |
| BAJAJFINSV | 28.8× | 0.08% | ₹2.86L Cr |
| RECLTD | 6.0× | 4.87% | ₹97,417 Cr |
| PFC | 5.6× | 3.58% | ₹1.45L Cr |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 23.3× | 1.09% | ₹2.33L Cr |
| CHOLAFIN | 28.0× | 0.12% | ₹1.46L Cr |
About Bajaj Finance: sector, index & market-cap context
Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹6.03L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the BAJFINANCE Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bajaj Finance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BAJFINANCE analysis, FAQs
Is Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) a good buy?
On the numbers, Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing premium at 31.4× earnings, ROE of 18.2%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BAJFINANCE overvalued or undervalued?
BAJFINANCE trades at 31.4× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens richer than its NBFC peers.
What is the BAJFINANCE share price target for 2031?
BAJFINANCE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,750, with an 80% range of ₹786–₹3,849 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BAJFINANCE doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BAJFINANCE reaching ₹1,924 (2×) within 5 years is 44%.
What is the bull case for BAJFINANCE?
High return on equity (18.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,085 (+13%).
What are the risks in BAJFINANCE?
At 31.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.