CHOLAFIN
Cholamandalam In & Fin Co
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is CHOLAFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) trades at ₹1,719,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100.
On the numbers, Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 28.0× earnings, ROE of 19.3%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
CHOLAFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is CHOLAFIN overvalued? CHOLAFIN P/E vs its NBFC
CHOLAFIN's P/E of 28.0× sits above the NBFC peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.12% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.83%.
CHOLAFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CHOLAFIN history (8%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHOLAFIN 2027 | ₹1,143 | ₹1,734 | ₹2,650 | +2% |
| CHOLAFIN 2028 | ₹992 | ₹1,784 | ₹3,269 | +5% |
| CHOLAFIN 2029 | ₹892 | ₹1,852 | ₹3,786 | +9% |
| CHOLAFIN 2030 | ₹811 | ₹1,880 | ₹4,422 | +11% |
| CHOLAFIN 2031 | ₹747 | ₹1,951 | ₹5,004 | +15% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability CHOLAFIN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for CHOLAFIN
- High return on equity (19.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,786.
The bear case & risks
- At 28.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹892.
CHOLAFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years CHOLAFIN compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,143–₹2,650, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
CHOLAFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
CHOLAFIN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds CHOLAFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the CHOLAFIN price target & forecast page.
CHOLAFIN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CHOLAFIN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
CHOLAFIN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHOLAFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 31.5% | 3.2× |
| Zerodha | 26.9% | 3.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 24.5% | 4.1× |
Compare every broker on the CHOLAFIN MTF page.
CHOLAFIN vs peers,NBFC comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHOLAFIN (this stock) | 28.0× | 0.12% | ₹1.46L Cr |
| BAJFINANCE | 31.4× | 0.56% | ₹6.03L Cr |
| BAJAJFINSV | 28.8× | 0.08% | ₹2.86L Cr |
| RECLTD | 6.0× | 4.87% | ₹97,417 Cr |
| PFC | 5.6× | 3.58% | ₹1.45L Cr |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 23.3× | 1.09% | ₹2.33L Cr |
About Cholamandalam In & Fin Co: sector, index & market-cap context
Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.46L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the CHOLAFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cholamandalam In & Fin Co's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
CHOLAFIN analysis, FAQs
Is Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) a good buy?
On the numbers, Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 28.0× earnings, ROE of 19.3%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is CHOLAFIN overvalued or undervalued?
CHOLAFIN trades at 28.0× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens richer than its NBFC peers.
What is the CHOLAFIN share price target for 2031?
CHOLAFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,951, with an 80% range of ₹747–₹5,004 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability CHOLAFIN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of CHOLAFIN reaching ₹3,387 (2×) within 5 years is 23%.
What is the bull case for CHOLAFIN?
High return on equity (19.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
What are the risks in CHOLAFIN?
At 28.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.