Case study

CHOLAFIN

Cholamandalam In & Fin Co

Mixed signals1y model +2.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CHOLAFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) trades at ₹1,719,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100.

On the numbers, Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 28.0× earnings, ROE of 19.3%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CHOLAFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.46L Cr
Current price
₹1,719
P/E ratio
28.0×
P/B ratio
4.82×
Book value
₹357
Dividend yield
0.12%
ROCE
9.7%
ROE
19.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CHOLAFIN overvalued? CHOLAFIN P/E vs its NBFC

CHOLAFIN's P/E of 28.0× sits above the NBFC peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.12% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.83%.

CHOLAFIN P/E
28.0×
Peer median P/E
25.6×
CHOLAFIN div yield
0.12%
Peer median yield
0.83%

CHOLAFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CHOLAFIN history (8%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CHOLAFIN 2027₹1,143₹1,734₹2,650+2%
CHOLAFIN 2028₹992₹1,784₹3,269+5%
CHOLAFIN 2029₹892₹1,852₹3,786+9%
CHOLAFIN 2030₹811₹1,880₹4,422+11%
CHOLAFIN 2031₹747₹1,951₹5,004+15%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CHOLAFIN goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
23%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,387 within 5 years

The bull case for CHOLAFIN

  • High return on equity (19.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,786.

The bear case & risks

  • At 28.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹892.

CHOLAFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CHOLAFIN compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,143₹2,650, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CHOLAFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.4%
80% range₹1,143–₹2,650
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
9.3%
80% range₹892–₹3,786
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)14%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
15.2%
80% range₹747–₹5,004
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)23%

CHOLAFIN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CHOLAFIN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CHOLAFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CHOLAFIN price target & forecast page.

CHOLAFIN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CHOLAFIN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CHOLAFIN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHOLAFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox31.5%3.2×
Zerodha26.9%3.7×
DhanCHEAPEST24.5%4.1×

Compare every broker on the CHOLAFIN MTF page.

CHOLAFIN vs peers,NBFC comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CHOLAFIN (this stock)28.0×0.12%₹1.46L Cr
BAJFINANCE31.4×0.56%₹6.03L Cr
BAJAJFINSV28.8×0.08%₹2.86L Cr
RECLTD6.0×4.87%₹97,417 Cr
PFC5.6×3.58%₹1.45L Cr
SHRIRAMFIN23.3×1.09%₹2.33L Cr

About Cholamandalam In & Fin Co: sector, index & market-cap context

Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.46L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the CHOLAFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cholamandalam In & Fin Co's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CHOLAFIN analysis, FAQs

Is Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) a good buy?

On the numbers, Cholamandalam In & Fin Co (CHOLAFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 28.0× earnings, ROE of 19.3%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CHOLAFIN overvalued or undervalued?

CHOLAFIN trades at 28.0× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens richer than its NBFC peers.

What is the CHOLAFIN share price target for 2031?

CHOLAFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,951, with an 80% range of ₹747₹5,004 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CHOLAFIN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CHOLAFIN reaching ₹3,387 (2×) within 5 years is 23%.

What is the bull case for CHOLAFIN?

High return on equity (19.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.

What are the risks in CHOLAFIN?

At 28.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.

More on CHOLAFIN