BERGEPAINT
Berger Paints
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Berger Paints (BERGEPAINT) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BERGEPAINT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Berger Paints (BERGEPAINT) trades at ₹550,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.
On the numbers, Berger Paints (BERGEPAINT) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing expensive at 54.9× earnings, ROE of 17.8%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
BERGEPAINT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is BERGEPAINT overvalued? BERGEPAINT P/E vs its Consumer
BERGEPAINT's P/E of 54.9× sits below the Consumer peer median of 56.3×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.69% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.60%.
BERGEPAINT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of BERGEPAINT history (5%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BERGEPAINT 2027 | ₹398 | ₹556 | ₹774 | +1% |
| BERGEPAINT 2028 | ₹353 | ₹567 | ₹906 | +3% |
| BERGEPAINT 2029 | ₹322 | ₹572 | ₹1,023 | +4% |
| BERGEPAINT 2030 | ₹299 | ₹578 | ₹1,136 | +5% |
| BERGEPAINT 2031 | ₹284 | ₹582 | ₹1,237 | +6% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BERGEPAINT goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BERGEPAINT
- A healthy 17.8% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (22.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,023.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 54.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 9.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹322.
BERGEPAINT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years BERGEPAINT compounded at 5%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹398–₹774, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BERGEPAINT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BERGEPAINT price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BERGEPAINT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BERGEPAINT price target & forecast page.
BERGEPAINT Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. BERGEPAINT scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
BERGEPAINT MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BERGEPAINT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 28.9% | 3.5× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 28.9% | 3.5× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 28.9% | 3.5× |
Compare every broker on the BERGEPAINT MTF page.
BERGEPAINT vs peers,Consumer comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| BERGEPAINT (this stock) | 54.9× | 0.69% | ₹64,031 Cr |
| ASIANPAINT | 57.7× | 1.03% | ₹2.56L Cr |
| TITAN | 75.4× | 0.25% | ₹3.88L Cr |
| HAVELLS | 43.8× | 0.85% | ₹74,032 Cr |
| KALYANKJIL | 28.6× | 0.39% | ₹39,358 Cr |
| BLUESTARCO | 61.5× | 0.51% | ₹34,246 Cr |
About Berger Paints: sector, index & market-cap context
Berger Paints (BERGEPAINT) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Consumer sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹64,031 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the BERGEPAINT Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Berger Paints's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BERGEPAINT analysis, FAQs
Is Berger Paints (BERGEPAINT) a good buy?
On the numbers, Berger Paints (BERGEPAINT) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing expensive at 54.9× earnings, ROE of 17.8%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BERGEPAINT overvalued or undervalued?
BERGEPAINT trades at 54.9× earnings versus a peer median of 56.3×, so it screens cheaper than its Consumer peers.
What is the BERGEPAINT share price target for 2031?
BERGEPAINT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹582, with an 80% range of ₹284–₹1,237 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BERGEPAINT doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BERGEPAINT reaching ₹1,101 (2×) within 5 years is 14%.
What is the bull case for BERGEPAINT?
A healthy 17.8% return on equity. Strong ROCE (22.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in BERGEPAINT?
A rich 54.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 9.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.