BERGEPAINT
Berger Paints India Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Berger Paints India Limited (BERGEPAINT) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BERGEPAINT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Berger Paints India Limited (BERGEPAINT) trades at ₹531,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.
On the numbers, Berger Paints India Limited (BERGEPAINT) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 50.4× earnings, ROE of 17.3%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
BERGEPAINT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How BERGEPAINT ranks against the 2,374 companies in our screener
- BERGEPAINT's market cap of 63,227 Cr ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- BERGEPAINT's book value of ₹59 ranks in the 38th percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- BERGEPAINT's promoter holding of 75.0% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- BERGEPAINT's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 10.0% ranks in the 42nd percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- BERGEPAINT's 3-year revenue growth of 4.0% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- BERGEPAINT's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09x is lower than 78% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
Is BERGEPAINT overvalued? BERGEPAINT P/E vs its Consumer
BERGEPAINT's P/E of 50.4× sits below the Consumer peer median of 54.4×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.75% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.75%.
BERGEPAINT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BERGEPAINT history (11%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BERGEPAINT 2027 | ₹414 | ₹583 | ₹820 | +8% |
| BERGEPAINT 2028 | ₹383 | ₹627 | ₹1,027 | +16% |
| BERGEPAINT 2029 | ₹369 | ₹674 | ₹1,230 | +24% |
| BERGEPAINT 2030 | ₹366 | ₹725 | ₹1,435 | +34% |
| BERGEPAINT 2031 | ₹368 | ₹779 | ₹1,651 | +44% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BERGEPAINT goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BERGEPAINT
- BERGEPAINT's return on equity of 17.3% ranks in the 78th percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- BERGEPAINT's return on capital employed of 21.6% ranks in the 83rd percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹583 (+8%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,230.
The bear case & risks
- BERGEPAINT's P/E of 51.5x is lower than 26% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
- A steep 8.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹369.
BERGEPAINT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years BERGEPAINT compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹414-₹820, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BERGEPAINT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BERGEPAINT price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BERGEPAINT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BERGEPAINT price target & forecast page.
BERGEPAINT Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BERGEPAINT scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
BERGEPAINT MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BERGEPAINT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 28.81% | 3.5× |
| Zerodha | 28.80% | 3.5× |
| Groww | 28.82% | 3.5× |
| Dhan | 28.80% | 3.5× |
| Kotak Neo | 30.03% | 3.3× |
| Paytm Money | 29.01% | 3.4× |
| Pocketful | 28.82% | 3.5× |
| Anand Rathi | 28.80% | 3.5× |
| Bajaj Broking | 30.00% | 3.3× |
| Share IndiaCHEAPEST | 28.79% | 3.5× |
Compare every broker on the BERGEPAINT MTF page.
BERGEPAINT vs peers,Consumer comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| BERGEPAINT (this stock) | 50.4× | 0.75% | ₹61,862 Cr |
| ASIANPAINT | 54.4× | 1.00% | ₹2.65L Cr |
| TITAN | 77.4× | 0.29% | ₹4.52L Cr |
| HAVELLS | 48.5× | 0.78% | ₹80,773 Cr |
| PAGEIND | 54.5× | 1.42% | ₹43,073 Cr |
| KALYANKJIL | 42.1× | 0.25% | ₹61,615 Cr |
| BLUESTARCO | 58.6× | 0.56% | ₹30,986 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 10 Aug 2026
About Berger Paints India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Berger Paints India Limited (BERGEPAINT) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Consumer sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹61,862 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the BERGEPAINT Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Berger Paints India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BERGEPAINT analysis, FAQs
Is Berger Paints India Limited (BERGEPAINT) a good buy?
On the numbers, Berger Paints India Limited (BERGEPAINT) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 50.4× earnings, ROE of 17.3%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BERGEPAINT overvalued or undervalued?
BERGEPAINT trades at 50.4× earnings versus a peer median of 54.4×, so it screens cheaper than its Consumer peers.
What is the BERGEPAINT share price target for 2031?
BERGEPAINT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹779, with an 80% range of ₹368-₹1,651 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BERGEPAINT doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BERGEPAINT reaching ₹1,084 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.
What is the bull case for BERGEPAINT?
BERGEPAINT's return on equity of 17.3% ranks in the 78th percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026. BERGEPAINT's return on capital employed of 21.6% ranks in the 83rd percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹583 (+8%).
What are the risks in BERGEPAINT?
BERGEPAINT's P/E of 51.5x is lower than 26% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026. A steep 8.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.