Case study

HAVELLS

Havells India

Mixed signals1y model -24.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Havells India (HAVELLS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HAVELLS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Havells India (HAVELLS) trades at ₹1,181,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, Havells India (HAVELLS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing expensive at 43.8× earnings, ROE of 19.0%, a 13% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HAVELLS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹74,032 Cr
Current price
₹1,181
P/E ratio
43.8×
P/B ratio
7.82×
Book value
₹151
Dividend yield
0.85%
ROCE
24.9%
ROE
19.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HAVELLS overvalued? HAVELLS P/E vs its Consumer

HAVELLS's P/E of 43.8× sits below the Consumer peer median of 56.3×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.85% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.60%.

HAVELLS P/E
43.8×
Peer median P/E
56.3×
HAVELLS div yield
0.85%
Peer median yield
0.60%

HAVELLS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HAVELLS history (-25%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HAVELLS 2027₹650₹893₹1,225-24%
HAVELLS 2028₹429₹678₹1,049-42%
HAVELLS 2029₹291₹510₹884-57%
HAVELLS 2030₹205₹385₹730-67%
HAVELLS 2031₹145₹292₹596-75%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HAVELLS goes up, or doubles?

13%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
1%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,353 within 5 years

The bull case for HAVELLS

  • High return on equity (19.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (24.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹884.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 43.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 13% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹291.

HAVELLS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HAVELLS compounded at -25%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹650₹1,225, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HAVELLS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
24.1%
80% range₹650–₹1,225
P(price ↑)13%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
56.7%
80% range₹291–₹884
P(price ↑)2%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
75.2%
80% range₹145–₹596
P(price ↑)1%
P(price 2×)0%

HAVELLS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HAVELLS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HAVELLS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HAVELLS price target & forecast page.

HAVELLS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HAVELLS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HAVELLS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HAVELLS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.5%3.6×
Zerodha23.4%4.3×
DhanCHEAPEST22.0%4.5×

Compare every broker on the HAVELLS MTF page.

HAVELLS vs peers,Consumer comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HAVELLS (this stock)43.8×0.85%₹74,032 Cr
ASIANPAINT57.7×1.03%₹2.56L Cr
TITAN75.4×0.25%₹3.88L Cr
BERGEPAINT54.9×0.69%₹64,031 Cr
KALYANKJIL28.6×0.39%₹39,358 Cr
BLUESTARCO61.5×0.51%₹34,246 Cr

About Havells India: sector, index & market-cap context

Havells India (HAVELLS) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Consumer sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹74,032 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the HAVELLS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Havells India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HAVELLS analysis, FAQs

Is Havells India (HAVELLS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Havells India (HAVELLS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing expensive at 43.8× earnings, ROE of 19.0%, a 13% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HAVELLS overvalued or undervalued?

HAVELLS trades at 43.8× earnings versus a peer median of 56.3×, so it screens cheaper than its Consumer peers.

What is the HAVELLS share price target for 2031?

HAVELLS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹292, with an 80% range of ₹145₹596 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HAVELLS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HAVELLS reaching ₹2,353 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for HAVELLS?

High return on equity (19.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (24.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in HAVELLS?

A rich 43.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 13% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on HAVELLS