KALYANKJIL
Kalyan Jewellers
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is KALYANKJIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJIL) trades at ₹381,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 28.6× earnings, ROE of 24.8%, a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
KALYANKJIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is KALYANKJIL overvalued? KALYANKJIL P/E vs its Consumer
KALYANKJIL's P/E of 28.6× sits below the Consumer peer median of 56.3×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.39% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.60%.
KALYANKJIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KALYANKJIL history (-8%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALYANKJIL 2027 | ₹180 | ₹322 | ₹577 | -16% |
| KALYANKJIL 2028 | ₹120 | ₹268 | ₹605 | -30% |
| KALYANKJIL 2029 | ₹84 | ₹226 | ₹612 | -41% |
| KALYANKJIL 2030 | ₹61 | ₹189 | ₹599 | -51% |
| KALYANKJIL 2031 | ₹44 | ₹158 | ₹583 | -59% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability KALYANKJIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for KALYANKJIL
- High return on equity (24.8%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (20.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹612.
The bear case & risks
- At 28.6× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹84.
KALYANKJIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years KALYANKJIL compounded at -8%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹180–₹577, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
KALYANKJIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
KALYANKJIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds KALYANKJIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the KALYANKJIL price target & forecast page.
KALYANKJIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KALYANKJIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
KALYANKJIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KALYANKJIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.9% | 2.8× |
| Zerodha | 30.6% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 28.9% | 3.5× |
Compare every broker on the KALYANKJIL MTF page.
KALYANKJIL vs peers,Consumer comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| KALYANKJIL (this stock) | 28.6× | 0.39% | ₹39,358 Cr |
| ASIANPAINT | 57.7× | 1.03% | ₹2.56L Cr |
| TITAN | 75.4× | 0.25% | ₹3.88L Cr |
| HAVELLS | 43.8× | 0.85% | ₹74,032 Cr |
| BERGEPAINT | 54.9× | 0.69% | ₹64,031 Cr |
| BLUESTARCO | 61.5× | 0.51% | ₹34,246 Cr |
About Kalyan Jewellers: sector, index & market-cap context
Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJIL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Consumer sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹39,358 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the KALYANKJIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Kalyan Jewellers's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
KALYANKJIL analysis, FAQs
Is Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 28.6× earnings, ROE of 24.8%, a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is KALYANKJIL overvalued or undervalued?
KALYANKJIL trades at 28.6× earnings versus a peer median of 56.3×, so it screens cheaper than its Consumer peers.
What is the KALYANKJIL share price target for 2031?
KALYANKJIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹158, with an 80% range of ₹44–₹583 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability KALYANKJIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of KALYANKJIL reaching ₹767 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for KALYANKJIL?
High return on equity (24.8%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (20.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in KALYANKJIL?
At 28.6× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.