DABUR
Dabur India
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Dabur India (DABUR) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is DABUR a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Dabur India (DABUR) trades at ₹422,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100.
On the numbers, Dabur India (DABUR) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing premium at 39.3× earnings, ROE of 17.2%, a 18% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
DABUR fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is DABUR overvalued? DABUR P/E vs its FMCG
DABUR's P/E of 39.3× sits below the FMCG peer median of 49.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.95% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.88%.
DABUR share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of DABUR history (-18%/yr drift, 22%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DABUR 2027 | ₹259 | ₹346 | ₹462 | -18% |
| DABUR 2028 | ₹188 | ₹284 | ₹427 | -33% |
| DABUR 2029 | ₹141 | ₹233 | ₹386 | -45% |
| DABUR 2030 | ₹108 | ₹191 | ₹338 | -55% |
| DABUR 2031 | ₹83 | ₹157 | ₹300 | -63% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability DABUR goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for DABUR
- A healthy 17.2% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (20.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Relatively low volatility (22%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹386.
The bear case & risks
- At 39.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 18% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹141.
DABUR volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years DABUR compounded at -18%/year with annualized volatility of 22%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹259–₹462, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
DABUR price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
DABUR price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds DABUR hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the DABUR price target & forecast page.
DABUR Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. DABUR scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
DABUR MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DABUR with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.7% | 3.7× |
| Zerodha | 22.7% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the DABUR MTF page.
DABUR vs peers,FMCG comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DABUR (this stock) | 39.3× | 1.95% | ₹74,879 Cr |
| ITC | 17.4× | 4.98% | ₹3.64L Cr |
| HINDUNILVR | 33.7× | 1.88% | ₹5.13L Cr |
| NESTLEIND | 79.4× | 0.86% | ₹2.70L Cr |
| TATACONSUM | 71.7× | 0.90% | ₹1.10L Cr |
| BRITANNIA | 49.7× | 1.73% | ₹1.26L Cr |
| GODREJCP | 51.4× | 1.96% | ₹1.04L Cr |
About Dabur India: sector, index & market-cap context
Dabur India (DABUR) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the FMCG sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹74,879 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the DABUR Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Dabur India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
DABUR analysis, FAQs
Is Dabur India (DABUR) a good buy?
On the numbers, Dabur India (DABUR) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing premium at 39.3× earnings, ROE of 17.2%, a 18% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is DABUR overvalued or undervalued?
DABUR trades at 39.3× earnings versus a peer median of 49.7×, so it screens cheaper than its FMCG peers.
What is the DABUR share price target for 2031?
DABUR's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹157, with an 80% range of ₹83–₹300 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability DABUR doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of DABUR reaching ₹847 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for DABUR?
A healthy 17.2% return on equity. Strong ROCE (20.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. Relatively low volatility (22%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in DABUR?
At 39.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 18% chance of finishing above today's price.