Case study

NESTLEIND

NESTLE INDIA LIMITED

Worth a closer look1y model +10.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

63Score

NESTLE INDIA LIMITED (NESTLEIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NESTLEIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NESTLE INDIA LIMITED (NESTLEIND) trades at ₹1,540,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.

On the numbers, NESTLE INDIA LIMITED (NESTLEIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing expensive at 80.1× earnings, ROE of 74.2%, a 68% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on NESTLEIND

The central tension is plain: a business that earns an 85% return on capital and 74% on equity is among the most capital-light franchises on the exchange, yet it sells near 79 times earnings, so almost everything depends on how long that pricing power lasts. What you are really buying is brand durability and the assumption that volumes keep compounding, not a yield, since the payout barely registers. The mild Piotroski score is the nagging footnote here, hinting the year-on-year financial trend may not be as pristine as the headline efficiency. Watch volume growth and gross margins, because at this multiple, slowing offtake is what hurts.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.

NESTLEIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2.97L Cr
Current price
₹1,540
P/E ratio
80.1×
P/B ratio
57.68×
Book value
₹27
Dividend yield
0.78%
ROCE
85.3%
ROE
74.2%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How NESTLEIND ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is NESTLEIND overvalued? NESTLEIND P/E vs its FMCG

NESTLEIND's P/E of 80.1× sits above the FMCG peer median of 51.0×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.78% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.90%.

NESTLEIND P/E
80.1×
Peer median P/E
51.0×
NESTLEIND div yield
0.78%
Peer median yield
1.90%

NESTLEIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NESTLEIND history (15%/yr drift, 20%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NESTLEIND 2027₹1,315₹1,694₹2,182+10%
NESTLEIND 2028₹1,306₹1,863₹2,658+21%
NESTLEIND 2029₹1,320₹2,049₹3,180+33%
NESTLEIND 2030₹1,356₹2,253₹3,743+46%
NESTLEIND 2031₹1,405₹2,478₹4,370+61%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NESTLEIND goes up, or doubles?

68%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
86%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
31%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,080 within 5 years

The bull case for NESTLEIND

  • NESTLEIND's return on equity of 74.2% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NESTLEIND's return on capital employed of 85.3% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 68% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,694 (+10%).
  • Relatively low volatility (20%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,180.

The bear case & risks

  • NESTLEIND's P/E of 80.1x is lower than 14% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 57.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,320.

NESTLEIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years NESTLEIND compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 20%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,315-₹2,182, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NESTLEIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.0%
80% range₹1,315-₹2,182
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
33.0%
80% range₹1,320-₹3,180
P(price ↑)80%
P(price 2×)12%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
60.9%
80% range₹1,405-₹4,370
P(price ↑)86%
P(price 2×)31%

NESTLEIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NESTLEIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NESTLEIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NESTLEIND price target & forecast page.

NESTLEIND Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NESTLEIND scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

NESTLEIND MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NESTLEIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.00%4.3×
Zerodha22.60%4.4×
Groww22.56%4.4×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Pocketful26.50%3.8×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.50%3.8×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India26.50%3.8×

Compare every broker on the NESTLEIND MTF page.

NESTLEIND vs peers,FMCG comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NESTLEIND (this stock)80.1×0.78%₹2.97L Cr
ITC18.2×5.07%₹3.58L Cr
HINDUNILVR44.7×1.96%₹4.92L Cr
TATACONSUM64.9×0.92%₹1.07L Cr
BRITANNIA51.0×1.64%₹1.33L Cr
DABUR36.7×2.01%₹72,732 Cr
GODREJCP51.8×1.90%₹1.07L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About NESTLE INDIA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

NESTLE INDIA LIMITED (NESTLEIND) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the FMCG sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.97L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NESTLEIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NESTLE INDIA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NESTLEIND analysis, FAQs

Is NESTLE INDIA LIMITED (NESTLEIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, NESTLE INDIA LIMITED (NESTLEIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing expensive at 80.1× earnings, ROE of 74.2%, a 68% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NESTLEIND overvalued or undervalued?

NESTLEIND trades at 80.1× earnings versus a peer median of 51.0×, so it screens richer than its FMCG peers.

What is the NESTLEIND share price target for 2031?

NESTLEIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,478, with an 80% range of ₹1,405-₹4,370 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NESTLEIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NESTLEIND reaching ₹3,080 (2×) within 5 years is 31%.

What is the bull case for NESTLEIND?

NESTLEIND's return on equity of 74.2% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NESTLEIND's return on capital employed of 85.3% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 68% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,694 (+10%).

What are the risks in NESTLEIND?

NESTLEIND's P/E of 80.1x is lower than 14% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 57.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on NESTLEIND