EMAMILTD
Emami
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Emami (EMAMILTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is EMAMILTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Emami (EMAMILTD) trades at ₹407,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100.
On the numbers, Emami (EMAMILTD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.7× earnings, ROE of 27.9%, a 14% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
EMAMILTD fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is EMAMILTD overvalued? EMAMILTD P/E vs its FMCG
EMAMILTD's P/E of 22.7× sits below the FMCG peer median of 39.3×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.46% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.88%.
EMAMILTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of EMAMILTD history (-28%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMAMILTD 2027 | ₹199 | ₹297 | ₹443 | -28% |
| EMAMILTD 2028 | ₹121 | ₹213 | ₹376 | -48% |
| EMAMILTD 2029 | ₹76 | ₹152 | ₹306 | -63% |
| EMAMILTD 2030 | ₹49 | ₹110 | ₹244 | -73% |
| EMAMILTD 2031 | ₹32 | ₹79 | ₹192 | -81% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability EMAMILTD goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for EMAMILTD
- A 22.7× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- High return on equity (27.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (29.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 2.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹306.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 14% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹76.
EMAMILTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years EMAMILTD compounded at -28%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹199–₹443, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
EMAMILTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
EMAMILTD price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds EMAMILTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the EMAMILTD price target & forecast page.
EMAMILTD Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. EMAMILTD scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
EMAMILTD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy EMAMILTD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the EMAMILTD MTF page.
EMAMILTD vs peers,FMCG comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMAMILTD (this stock) | 22.7× | 2.46% | ₹17,774 Cr |
| ITC | 17.4× | 4.98% | ₹3.64L Cr |
| HINDUNILVR | 33.7× | 1.88% | ₹5.13L Cr |
| NESTLEIND | 79.4× | 0.86% | ₹2.70L Cr |
| TATACONSUM | 71.7× | 0.90% | ₹1.10L Cr |
| BRITANNIA | 49.7× | 1.73% | ₹1.26L Cr |
| DABUR | 39.3× | 1.95% | ₹74,879 Cr |
About Emami: sector, index & market-cap context
Emami (EMAMILTD) is a small-cap NSE-listed company in the FMCG sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹17,774 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the EMAMILTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Emami's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
EMAMILTD analysis, FAQs
Is Emami (EMAMILTD) a good buy?
On the numbers, Emami (EMAMILTD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.7× earnings, ROE of 27.9%, a 14% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is EMAMILTD overvalued or undervalued?
EMAMILTD trades at 22.7× earnings versus a peer median of 39.3×, so it screens cheaper than its FMCG peers.
What is the EMAMILTD share price target for 2031?
EMAMILTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹79, with an 80% range of ₹32–₹192 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability EMAMILTD doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of EMAMILTD reaching ₹827 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for EMAMILTD?
A 22.7× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (27.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (29.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in EMAMILTD?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 14% chance of finishing above today's price.