Case study

FEDERALBNK

Federal Bank Ltd. (India)

Worth a closer look1y model +8.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

Federal Bank Ltd. (India) (FEDERALBNK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is FEDERALBNK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Federal Bank Ltd. (India) (FEDERALBNK) trades at ₹356,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Federal Bank Ltd. (India) (FEDERALBNK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.8× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

FEDERALBNK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹88,000 Cr
Current price
₹356
P/E ratio
18.8×
P/B ratio
2.20×
Book value
₹162
Dividend yield
0.34%
ROCE
6.4%
ROE
11.6%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How FEDERALBNK ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold promoter holding or debt-to-equity ratio figures for FEDERALBNK, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is FEDERALBNK overvalued? FEDERALBNK P/E vs its Banking

FEDERALBNK's P/E of 18.8× sits above the Banking peer median of 18.8×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.34% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.34%.

FEDERALBNK P/E
18.8×
Peer median P/E
18.8×
FEDERALBNK div yield
0.34%
Peer median yield
0.34%

FEDERALBNK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of FEDERALBNK history (18%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
FEDERALBNK 2027₹279₹387₹537+9%
FEDERALBNK 2028₹264₹421₹671+18%
FEDERALBNK 2029₹259₹457₹805+28%
FEDERALBNK 2030₹260₹496₹947+39%
FEDERALBNK 2031₹262₹539₹1,110+51%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability FEDERALBNK goes up, or doubles?

63%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
77%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
31%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹713 within 5 years

The bull case for FEDERALBNK

  • FEDERALBNK's P/E of 18.8x is lower than 65% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹387 (+9%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹805.

The bear case & risks

  • FEDERALBNK's return on equity of 11.6% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹259.

FEDERALBNK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years FEDERALBNK compounded at 18%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹279-₹537, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

FEDERALBNK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
8.6%
80% range₹279-₹537
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
28.3%
80% range₹259-₹805
P(price ↑)71%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
51.4%
80% range₹262-₹1,110
P(price ↑)77%
P(price 2×)31%

FEDERALBNK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
FEDERALBNK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds FEDERALBNK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the FEDERALBNK price target & forecast page.

FEDERALBNK Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. FEDERALBNK scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

FEDERALBNK MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FEDERALBNK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox24.25%4.1×
Zerodha23.60%4.2×
Groww23.64%4.2×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.70%4.8×
Paytm Money21.37%4.7×
Pocketful27.39%3.7×
Anand Rathi27.72%3.6×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India27.73%3.6×

Compare every broker on the FEDERALBNK MTF page.

Which ace investors hold FEDERALBNK?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

FEDERALBNK vs peers,Banking comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
FEDERALBNK (this stock)18.8×0.34%₹88,000 Cr
HDFCBANK14.3×1.78%₹11.26L Cr
ICICIBANK18.2×0.84%₹10.20L Cr
SBIN12.0×1.58%₹10.13L Cr
KOTAKBANK19.4×0.17%₹3.89L Cr
INDUSINDBK60.2×0.15%₹79,627 Cr
YESBANK18.9×0.00%₹71,218 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Federal Bank Ltd. (India): sector, index & market-cap context

Federal Bank Ltd. (India) (FEDERALBNK) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹88,000 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the FEDERALBNK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Federal Bank Ltd. (India)'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

FEDERALBNK analysis, FAQs

Is Federal Bank Ltd. (India) (FEDERALBNK) a good buy?

On the numbers, Federal Bank Ltd. (India) (FEDERALBNK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.8× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is FEDERALBNK overvalued or undervalued?

FEDERALBNK trades at 18.8× earnings versus a peer median of 18.8×, so it screens richer than its Banking peers.

What is the FEDERALBNK share price target for 2031?

FEDERALBNK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹539, with an 80% range of ₹262-₹1,110 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability FEDERALBNK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of FEDERALBNK reaching ₹713 (2×) within 5 years is 31%.

What is the bull case for FEDERALBNK?

FEDERALBNK's P/E of 18.8x is lower than 65% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹387 (+9%).

What are the risks in FEDERALBNK?

FEDERALBNK's return on equity of 11.6% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on FEDERALBNK