Case study

FEDERALBNK

Federal Bank

Worth a closer look1y model +32.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Federal Bank (FEDERALBNK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is FEDERALBNK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Federal Bank (FEDERALBNK) trades at ₹323,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Federal Bank (FEDERALBNK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.4× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 87% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

FEDERALBNK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹79,806 Cr
Current price
₹323
P/E ratio
18.4×
P/B ratio
1.99×
Book value
₹162
Dividend yield
0.37%
ROCE
6.4%
ROE
11.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is FEDERALBNK overvalued? FEDERALBNK P/E vs its Banking

FEDERALBNK's P/E of 18.4× sits above the Banking peer median of 18.4×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.37% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.37%.

FEDERALBNK P/E
18.4×
Peer median P/E
18.4×
FEDERALBNK div yield
0.37%
Peer median yield
0.37%

FEDERALBNK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of FEDERALBNK history (31%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
FEDERALBNK 2027₹310₹430₹596+33%
FEDERALBNK 2028₹356₹568₹900+75%
FEDERALBNK 2029₹432₹756₹1,303+133%
FEDERALBNK 2030₹517₹1,000₹1,910+209%
FEDERALBNK 2031₹642₹1,330₹2,726+311%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability FEDERALBNK goes up, or doubles?

87%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
99%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
90%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹648 within 5 years

The bull case for FEDERALBNK

  • A 18.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 87% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹430 (+33%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,303.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 11.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹432.

FEDERALBNK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years FEDERALBNK compounded at 31%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹310₹596, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

FEDERALBNK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
32.7%
80% range₹310–₹596
P(price ↑)87%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
133.3%
80% range₹432–₹1,303
P(price ↑)97%
P(price 2×)63%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
310.6%
80% range₹642–₹2,726
P(price ↑)99%
P(price 2×)90%

FEDERALBNK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
FEDERALBNK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds FEDERALBNK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the FEDERALBNK price target & forecast page.

FEDERALBNK Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. FEDERALBNK scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

FEDERALBNK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FEDERALBNK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.7%3.6×
Zerodha23.6%4.2×
DhanCHEAPEST22.0%4.5×

Compare every broker on the FEDERALBNK MTF page.

Which ace investors hold FEDERALBNK?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

FEDERALBNK vs peers,Banking comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
FEDERALBNK (this stock)18.4×0.37%₹79,806 Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr
KOTAKBANK21.0×0.12%₹4.00L Cr
INDUSINDBK80.6×0.16%₹71,728 Cr
YESBANK22.3×0.00%₹78,371 Cr

About Federal Bank: sector, index & market-cap context

Federal Bank (FEDERALBNK) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹79,806 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the FEDERALBNK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Federal Bank's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

FEDERALBNK analysis, FAQs

Is Federal Bank (FEDERALBNK) a good buy?

On the numbers, Federal Bank (FEDERALBNK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.4× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 87% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is FEDERALBNK overvalued or undervalued?

FEDERALBNK trades at 18.4× earnings versus a peer median of 18.4×, so it screens richer than its Banking peers.

What is the FEDERALBNK share price target for 2031?

FEDERALBNK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,330, with an 80% range of ₹642₹2,726 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability FEDERALBNK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of FEDERALBNK reaching ₹648 (2×) within 5 years is 90%.

What is the bull case for FEDERALBNK?

A 18.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 87% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹430 (+33%).

What are the risks in FEDERALBNK?

Return on equity is a soft 11.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on FEDERALBNK