IDFCFIRSTB
IDFC First Bank
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
IDFC First Bank (IDFCFIRSTB) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IDFCFIRSTB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
IDFC First Bank (IDFCFIRSTB) trades at ₹81,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100.
On the numbers, IDFC First Bank (IDFCFIRSTB) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 43.1× earnings, ROE of 3.8%, a 41% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IDFCFIRSTB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is IDFCFIRSTB overvalued? IDFCFIRSTB P/E vs its Banking
IDFCFIRSTB's P/E of 43.1× sits above the Banking peer median of 21.0×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.31% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.31%.
IDFCFIRSTB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IDFCFIRSTB history (-3%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDFCFIRSTB 2027 | ₹50 | ₹73 | ₹108 | -7% |
| IDFCFIRSTB 2028 | ₹39 | ₹68 | ₹119 | -13% |
| IDFCFIRSTB 2029 | ₹32 | ₹64 | ₹124 | -19% |
| IDFCFIRSTB 2030 | ₹27 | ₹59 | ₹129 | -25% |
| IDFCFIRSTB 2031 | ₹23 | ₹55 | ₹131 | -30% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IDFCFIRSTB goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IDFCFIRSTB
- Low price-to-book of 1.47×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹124.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 43.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 3.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 41% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹32.
IDFCFIRSTB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years IDFCFIRSTB compounded at -3%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹50–₹108, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IDFCFIRSTB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IDFCFIRSTB price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IDFCFIRSTB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IDFCFIRSTB price target & forecast page.
IDFCFIRSTB Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IDFCFIRSTB scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
IDFCFIRSTB MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IDFCFIRSTB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.6% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 26.1% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.6% | 4.2× |
Compare every broker on the IDFCFIRSTB MTF page.
IDFCFIRSTB vs peers,Banking comparison
About IDFC First Bank: sector, index & market-cap context
IDFC First Bank (IDFCFIRSTB) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹69,465 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the IDFCFIRSTB Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IDFC First Bank's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IDFCFIRSTB analysis, FAQs
Is IDFC First Bank (IDFCFIRSTB) a good buy?
On the numbers, IDFC First Bank (IDFCFIRSTB) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 43.1× earnings, ROE of 3.8%, a 41% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IDFCFIRSTB overvalued or undervalued?
IDFCFIRSTB trades at 43.1× earnings versus a peer median of 21.0×, so it screens richer than its Banking peers.
What is the IDFCFIRSTB share price target for 2031?
IDFCFIRSTB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹55, with an 80% range of ₹23–₹131 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IDFCFIRSTB doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IDFCFIRSTB reaching ₹157 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for IDFCFIRSTB?
Low price-to-book of 1.47×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in IDFCFIRSTB?
A rich 43.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 3.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 41% chance of finishing above today's price.