Case study

LICHSGFIN

Lic Housing Finance Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +4.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

65Score

Lic Housing Finance Limited (LICHSGFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is LICHSGFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Lic Housing Finance Limited (LICHSGFIN) trades at ₹504,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.

On the numbers, Lic Housing Finance Limited (LICHSGFIN) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.8× earnings, ROE of 14.4%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

LICHSGFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹27,737 Cr
Current price
₹504
P/E ratio
4.8×
P/B ratio
0.67×
Book value
₹753
Dividend yield
1.98%
ROCE
8.6%
ROE
14.4%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How LICHSGFIN ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for LICHSGFIN, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is LICHSGFIN overvalued? LICHSGFIN P/E vs its NBFC

LICHSGFIN's P/E of 4.8× sits below the NBFC peer median of 16.1×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.98% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.98%.

LICHSGFIN P/E
4.8×
Peer median P/E
16.1×
LICHSGFIN div yield
1.98%
Peer median yield
1.98%

LICHSGFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of LICHSGFIN history (-0%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
LICHSGFIN 2027₹370₹529₹757+5%
LICHSGFIN 2028₹334₹555₹923+10%
LICHSGFIN 2029₹315₹582₹1,078+16%
LICHSGFIN 2030₹300₹611₹1,245+21%
LICHSGFIN 2031₹287₹641₹1,431+27%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability LICHSGFIN goes up, or doubles?

57%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
66%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
23%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,009 within 5 years

The bull case for LICHSGFIN

  • LICHSGFIN's P/E of 4.8x is lower than 94% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.67×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • LICHSGFIN's return on equity of 14.4% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,078.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹315.

LICHSGFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years LICHSGFIN compounded at -0%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹370-₹757, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

LICHSGFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.9%
80% range₹370-₹757
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
15.5%
80% range₹315-₹1,078
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)13%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
27.2%
80% range₹287-₹1,431
P(price ↑)66%
P(price 2×)23%

LICHSGFIN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
LICHSGFIN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds LICHSGFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the LICHSGFIN price target & forecast page.

LICHSGFIN Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. LICHSGFIN scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

LICHSGFIN MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LICHSGFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox24.90%4.0×
Zerodha24.20%4.1×
Groww24.23%4.1×
Dhan22.50%4.4×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST21.37%4.7×
Paytm Money21.47%4.7×
Pocketful28.48%3.5×
Anand Rathi28.37%3.5×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India28.45%3.5×

Compare every broker on the LICHSGFIN MTF page.

LICHSGFIN vs peers,NBFC comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
LICHSGFIN (this stock)4.8×1.98%₹27,737 Cr
BAJFINANCE32.8×0.50%₹6.71L Cr
BAJAJFINSV31.3×0.07%₹3.22L Cr
RECLTD6.0×5.05%₹96,639 Cr
IRFC16.1×2.37%₹1.16L Cr
PFC5.3×4.42%₹1.39L Cr
SHRIRAMFIN23.2×0.97%₹2.62L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Lic Housing Finance Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Lic Housing Finance Limited (LICHSGFIN) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹27,737 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the LICHSGFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Lic Housing Finance Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

LICHSGFIN analysis, FAQs

Is Lic Housing Finance Limited (LICHSGFIN) a good buy?

On the numbers, Lic Housing Finance Limited (LICHSGFIN) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.8× earnings, ROE of 14.4%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is LICHSGFIN overvalued or undervalued?

LICHSGFIN trades at 4.8× earnings versus a peer median of 16.1×, so it screens cheaper than its NBFC peers.

What is the LICHSGFIN share price target for 2031?

LICHSGFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹641, with an 80% range of ₹287-₹1,431 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability LICHSGFIN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of LICHSGFIN reaching ₹1,009 (2×) within 5 years is 23%.

What is the bull case for LICHSGFIN?

LICHSGFIN's P/E of 4.8x is lower than 94% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 0.67×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. LICHSGFIN's return on equity of 14.4% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in LICHSGFIN?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on LICHSGFIN