LICHSGFIN
LIC Housing Finance
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is LICHSGFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN) trades at ₹548,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100.
On the numbers, LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.4× earnings, ROE of 14.4%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
LICHSGFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is LICHSGFIN overvalued? LICHSGFIN P/E vs its NBFC
LICHSGFIN's P/E of 5.4× sits below the NBFC peer median of 14.6×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.82% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.46%.
LICHSGFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LICHSGFIN history (-15%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LICHSGFIN 2027 | ₹316 | ₹456 | ₹657 | -17% |
| LICHSGFIN 2028 | ₹224 | ₹379 | ₹628 | -31% |
| LICHSGFIN 2029 | ₹164 | ₹312 | ₹588 | -43% |
| LICHSGFIN 2030 | ₹125 | ₹258 | ₹532 | -53% |
| LICHSGFIN 2031 | ₹96 | ₹215 | ₹476 | -61% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability LICHSGFIN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for LICHSGFIN
- Trades at just 5.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 0.73×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- A healthy 14.4% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹588.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹164.
LICHSGFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years LICHSGFIN compounded at -15%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹316–₹657, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
LICHSGFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
LICHSGFIN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds LICHSGFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the LICHSGFIN price target & forecast page.
LICHSGFIN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LICHSGFIN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
LICHSGFIN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LICHSGFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 28.8% | 3.5× |
| Zerodha | 24.5% | 4.1× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.5% | 4.4× |
Compare every broker on the LICHSGFIN MTF page.
LICHSGFIN vs peers,NBFC comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| LICHSGFIN (this stock) | 5.4× | 1.82% | ₹30,218 Cr |
| BAJFINANCE | 31.4× | 0.56% | ₹6.03L Cr |
| BAJAJFINSV | 28.8× | 0.08% | ₹2.86L Cr |
| RECLTD | 6.0× | 4.87% | ₹97,417 Cr |
| PFC | 5.6× | 3.58% | ₹1.45L Cr |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 23.3× | 1.09% | ₹2.33L Cr |
About LIC Housing Finance: sector, index & market-cap context
LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹30,218 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the LICHSGFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of LIC Housing Finance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
LICHSGFIN analysis, FAQs
Is LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN) a good buy?
On the numbers, LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.4× earnings, ROE of 14.4%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is LICHSGFIN overvalued or undervalued?
LICHSGFIN trades at 5.4× earnings versus a peer median of 14.6×, so it screens cheaper than its NBFC peers.
What is the LICHSGFIN share price target for 2031?
LICHSGFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹215, with an 80% range of ₹96–₹476 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability LICHSGFIN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of LICHSGFIN reaching ₹1,100 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for LICHSGFIN?
Trades at just 5.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.73×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 14.4% return on equity.
What are the risks in LICHSGFIN?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.