MARICO
Marico
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Marico (MARICO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MARICO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Marico (MARICO) trades at ₹812,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.
On the numbers, Marico (MARICO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing expensive at 59.9× earnings, ROE of 43.0%, a 70% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MARICO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MARICO overvalued? MARICO P/E vs its FMCG
MARICO's P/E of 59.9× sits above the FMCG peer median of 49.7×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.49% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.73%.
MARICO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MARICO history (13%/yr drift, 21%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARICO 2027 | ₹692 | ₹908 | ₹1,195 | +12% |
| MARICO 2028 | ₹693 | ₹1,021 | ₹1,494 | +26% |
| MARICO 2029 | ₹705 | ₹1,141 | ₹1,813 | +40% |
| MARICO 2030 | ₹739 | ₹1,276 | ₹2,188 | +57% |
| MARICO 2031 | ₹777 | ₹1,419 | ₹2,616 | +75% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MARICO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MARICO
- High return on equity (43.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (47.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 70% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹908 (+12%).
- Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,813.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 59.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 25.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹705.
MARICO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MARICO compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 21%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹692–₹1,195, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MARICO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MARICO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MARICO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MARICO price target & forecast page.
MARICO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MARICO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MARICO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MARICO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.5% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the MARICO MTF page.
MARICO vs peers,FMCG comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARICO (this stock) | 59.9× | 0.49% | ₹1.06L Cr |
| ITC | 17.4× | 4.98% | ₹3.64L Cr |
| HINDUNILVR | 33.7× | 1.88% | ₹5.13L Cr |
| NESTLEIND | 79.4× | 0.86% | ₹2.70L Cr |
| TATACONSUM | 71.7× | 0.90% | ₹1.10L Cr |
| BRITANNIA | 49.7× | 1.73% | ₹1.26L Cr |
| DABUR | 39.3× | 1.95% | ₹74,879 Cr |
About Marico: sector, index & market-cap context
Marico (MARICO) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the FMCG sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.06L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the MARICO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Marico's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MARICO analysis, FAQs
Is Marico (MARICO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Marico (MARICO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing expensive at 59.9× earnings, ROE of 43.0%, a 70% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MARICO overvalued or undervalued?
MARICO trades at 59.9× earnings versus a peer median of 49.7×, so it screens richer than its FMCG peers.
What is the MARICO share price target for 2031?
MARICO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,419, with an 80% range of ₹777–₹2,616 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MARICO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MARICO reaching ₹1,625 (2×) within 5 years is 39%.
What is the bull case for MARICO?
High return on equity (43.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (47.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 70% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹908 (+12%).
What are the risks in MARICO?
A rich 59.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 25.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.