Case study

MUTHOOTFIN

MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED

Screens attractive1y model +6.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

72Score

MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED (MUTHOOTFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MUTHOOTFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED (MUTHOOTFIN) trades at ₹2,890,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100.

On the numbers, MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED (MUTHOOTFIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.2× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MUTHOOTFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.16L Cr
Current price
₹2,890
P/E ratio
10.2×
P/B ratio
2.86×
Book value
₹1,011
Dividend yield
1.04%
ROCE
15.8%
ROE
30.9%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How MUTHOOTFIN ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for MUTHOOTFIN, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is MUTHOOTFIN overvalued? MUTHOOTFIN P/E vs its NBFC

MUTHOOTFIN's P/E of 10.2× sits below the NBFC peer median of 16.1×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.04% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.04%.

MUTHOOTFIN P/E
10.2×
Peer median P/E
16.1×
MUTHOOTFIN div yield
1.04%
Peer median yield
1.04%

MUTHOOTFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MUTHOOTFIN history (20%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MUTHOOTFIN 2027₹2,004₹3,090₹4,764+7%
MUTHOOTFIN 2028₹1,785₹3,303₹6,115+14%
MUTHOOTFIN 2029₹1,647₹3,532₹7,573+22%
MUTHOOTFIN 2030₹1,566₹3,776₹9,104+31%
MUTHOOTFIN 2031₹1,527₹4,037₹10,672+40%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MUTHOOTFIN goes up, or doubles?

58%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
67%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
32%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹5,780 within 5 years

The bull case for MUTHOOTFIN

  • MUTHOOTFIN's P/E of 10.2x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • MUTHOOTFIN's return on equity of 30.9% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,573.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,647.

MUTHOOTFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years MUTHOOTFIN compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,004-₹4,764, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MUTHOOTFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.9%
80% range₹2,004-₹4,764
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
22.2%
80% range₹1,647-₹7,573
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
39.7%
80% range₹1,527-₹10,672
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)32%

MUTHOOTFIN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MUTHOOTFIN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MUTHOOTFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MUTHOOTFIN price target & forecast page.

MUTHOOTFIN Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MUTHOOTFIN scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

MUTHOOTFIN MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MUTHOOTFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox28.71%3.5×
Zerodha27.40%3.6×
Groww27.51%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST25.17%4.0×
Kotak Neo25.19%4.0×
Paytm Money100.00%1.0×
Pocketful32.13%3.1×
Fyers33.33%3.0×
Anand Rathi32.17%3.1×
Bajaj Broking26.00%3.8×
Share India32.32%3.1×

Compare every broker on the MUTHOOTFIN MTF page.

MUTHOOTFIN vs peers,NBFC comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MUTHOOTFIN (this stock)10.2×1.04%₹1.16L Cr
BAJFINANCE32.8×0.50%₹6.71L Cr
BAJAJFINSV31.3×0.07%₹3.22L Cr
RECLTD6.0×5.05%₹96,639 Cr
IRFC16.1×2.37%₹1.16L Cr
PFC5.3×4.42%₹1.39L Cr
SHRIRAMFIN23.2×0.97%₹2.62L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED (MUTHOOTFIN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.16L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the MUTHOOTFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MUTHOOTFIN analysis, FAQs

Is MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED (MUTHOOTFIN) a good buy?

On the numbers, MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED (MUTHOOTFIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.2× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MUTHOOTFIN overvalued or undervalued?

MUTHOOTFIN trades at 10.2× earnings versus a peer median of 16.1×, so it screens cheaper than its NBFC peers.

What is the MUTHOOTFIN share price target for 2031?

MUTHOOTFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹4,037, with an 80% range of ₹1,527-₹10,672 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MUTHOOTFIN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MUTHOOTFIN reaching ₹5,780 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.

What is the bull case for MUTHOOTFIN?

MUTHOOTFIN's P/E of 10.2x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. MUTHOOTFIN's return on equity of 30.9% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in MUTHOOTFIN?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on MUTHOOTFIN