MUTHOOTFIN
Muthoot Finance
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Muthoot Finance (MUTHOOTFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MUTHOOTFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Muthoot Finance (MUTHOOTFIN) trades at ₹3,216,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.
On the numbers, Muthoot Finance (MUTHOOTFIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.2× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 77% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MUTHOOTFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MUTHOOTFIN overvalued? MUTHOOTFIN P/E vs its NBFC
MUTHOOTFIN's P/E of 12.2× sits below the NBFC peer median of 17.8×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.93% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.01%.
MUTHOOTFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MUTHOOTFIN history (30%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUTHOOTFIN 2027 | ₹2,603 | ₹3,968 | ₹6,124 | +27% |
| MUTHOOTFIN 2028 | ₹2,794 | ₹5,098 | ₹9,361 | +63% |
| MUTHOOTFIN 2029 | ₹3,146 | ₹6,555 | ₹13,802 | +110% |
| MUTHOOTFIN 2030 | ₹3,560 | ₹8,363 | ₹19,820 | +168% |
| MUTHOOTFIN 2031 | ₹4,084 | ₹10,722 | ₹28,259 | +243% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MUTHOOTFIN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MUTHOOTFIN
- Trades at just 12.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (30.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 77% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,968 (+27%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹13,802.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3,146.
MUTHOOTFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MUTHOOTFIN compounded at 30%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,603–₹6,124, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MUTHOOTFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MUTHOOTFIN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MUTHOOTFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MUTHOOTFIN price target & forecast page.
MUTHOOTFIN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MUTHOOTFIN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MUTHOOTFIN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MUTHOOTFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 32.3% | 3.1× |
| Zerodha | 27.5% | 3.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 25.3% | 4.0× |
Compare every broker on the MUTHOOTFIN MTF page.
MUTHOOTFIN vs peers,NBFC comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUTHOOTFIN (this stock) | 12.2× | 0.93% | ₹1.29L Cr |
| BAJFINANCE | 31.4× | 0.56% | ₹6.03L Cr |
| BAJAJFINSV | 28.8× | 0.08% | ₹2.86L Cr |
| RECLTD | 6.0× | 4.87% | ₹97,417 Cr |
| PFC | 5.6× | 3.58% | ₹1.45L Cr |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 23.3× | 1.09% | ₹2.33L Cr |
About Muthoot Finance: sector, index & market-cap context
Muthoot Finance (MUTHOOTFIN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.29L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the MUTHOOTFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Muthoot Finance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MUTHOOTFIN analysis, FAQs
Is Muthoot Finance (MUTHOOTFIN) a good buy?
On the numbers, Muthoot Finance (MUTHOOTFIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.2× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 77% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MUTHOOTFIN overvalued or undervalued?
MUTHOOTFIN trades at 12.2× earnings versus a peer median of 17.8×, so it screens cheaper than its NBFC peers.
What is the MUTHOOTFIN share price target for 2031?
MUTHOOTFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹10,722, with an 80% range of ₹4,084–₹28,259 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MUTHOOTFIN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MUTHOOTFIN reaching ₹6,252 (2×) within 5 years is 77%.
What is the bull case for MUTHOOTFIN?
Trades at just 12.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (30.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 77% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,968 (+27%).
What are the risks in MUTHOOTFIN?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.