Case study

PNB

PNB

Worth a closer look1y model -10.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

PNB (PNB) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is PNB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

PNB (PNB) trades at ₹110,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.

On the numbers, PNB (PNB) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.9× earnings, ROE of 13.0%, a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

PNB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.26L Cr
Current price
₹110
P/E ratio
6.9×
P/B ratio
0.85×
Book value
₹130
Dividend yield
2.73%
ROCE
6.1%
ROE
13.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is PNB overvalued? PNB P/E vs its Banking

PNB's P/E of 6.9× sits below the Banking peer median of 17.9×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.73% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.81%.

PNB P/E
6.9×
Peer median P/E
17.9×
PNB div yield
2.73%
Peer median yield
0.81%

PNB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PNB history (-7%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
PNB 2027₹67₹97₹142-11%
PNB 2028₹51₹87₹147-20%
PNB 2029₹41₹78₹149-28%
PNB 2030₹33₹70₹147-36%
PNB 2031₹27₹63₹141-42%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability PNB goes up, or doubles?

35%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
19%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
3%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹218 within 5 years

The bull case for PNB

  • Trades at just 6.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.85×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • A healthy 13.0% return on equity.
  • Pays a 2.7% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹149.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹41.

PNB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years PNB compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹67₹142, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

PNB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.8%
80% range₹67–₹142
P(price ↑)35%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
28.5%
80% range₹41–₹149
P(price ↑)25%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
42.2%
80% range₹27–₹141
P(price ↑)19%
P(price 2×)3%

PNB price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
PNB simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds PNB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the PNB price target & forecast page.

PNB Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. PNB scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

PNB MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PNB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.6%3.4×
Zerodha25.3%4.0×
DhanCHEAPEST23.0%4.3×

Compare every broker on the PNB MTF page.

PNB vs peers,Banking comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
PNB (this stock)6.9×2.73%₹1.26L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr
KOTAKBANK21.0×0.12%₹4.00L Cr
INDUSINDBK80.6×0.16%₹71,728 Cr
YESBANK22.3×0.00%₹78,371 Cr

About PNB: sector, index & market-cap context

PNB (PNB) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.26L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the PNB Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of PNB's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

PNB analysis, FAQs

Is PNB (PNB) a good buy?

On the numbers, PNB (PNB) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.9× earnings, ROE of 13.0%, a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is PNB overvalued or undervalued?

PNB trades at 6.9× earnings versus a peer median of 17.9×, so it screens cheaper than its Banking peers.

What is the PNB share price target for 2031?

PNB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹63, with an 80% range of ₹27₹141 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability PNB doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of PNB reaching ₹218 (2×) within 5 years is 3%.

What is the bull case for PNB?

Trades at just 6.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.85×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 13.0% return on equity.

What are the risks in PNB?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on PNB