Case study

SBICARD

SBI Cards & Payment Services

Tread carefully1y model -11.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SBICARD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SBICARD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SBICARD history (-9%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SBICARD 2027₹398₹546₹759-11%
SBICARD 2028₹308₹485₹774-21%
SBICARD 2029₹246₹432₹756-30%
SBICARD 2030₹203₹384₹729-38%
SBICARD 2031₹165₹339₹702-45%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SBICARD goes up, or doubles?

32%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
15%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,234 within 5 years

The bull case for SBICARD

  • SBI Cards & Payment Services is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹756.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹246.

SBICARD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years SBICARD compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹398₹759, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SBICARD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.5%
80% range₹398–₹759
P(price ↑)32%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
30.1%
80% range₹246–₹756
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
45.1%
80% range₹165–₹702
P(price ↑)15%
P(price 2×)1%

SBICARD price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SBICARD simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SBICARD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SBICARD price target & forecast page.

SBICARD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SBICARD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.9%3.6×
Zerodha23.8%4.2×
DhanCHEAPEST22.0%4.5×

Compare every broker on the SBICARD MTF page.

SBICARD vs peers,NBFC comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
SBICARD (this stock)
BAJFINANCE31.4×0.56%₹6.03L Cr
BAJAJFINSV28.8×0.08%₹2.86L Cr
RECLTD6.0×4.87%₹97,417 Cr
PFC5.6×3.58%₹1.45L Cr
SHRIRAMFIN23.3×1.09%₹2.33L Cr

About SBI Cards & Payment Services: sector, index & market-cap context

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD) is an NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector.

How the SBICARD Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SBI Cards & Payment Services's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SBICARD analysis, FAQs

Is SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD) a good buy?

On the numbers, SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SBICARD overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for SBICARD are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the SBICARD share price target for 2031?

SBICARD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹339, with an 80% range of ₹165₹702 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SBICARD doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SBICARD reaching ₹1,234 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for SBICARD?

SBI Cards & Payment Services is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in SBICARD?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on SBICARD