Case study

VBL

VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +10.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

53Score

VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED (VBL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is VBL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED (VBL) trades at ₹437,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED (VBL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 43.4× earnings, ROE of 16.2%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

VBL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.47L Cr
Current price
₹437
P/E ratio
43.4×
P/B ratio
7.55×
Book value
₹58
Dividend yield
0.34%
ROCE
19.7%
ROE
16.2%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How VBL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is VBL overvalued? VBL P/E vs its FMCG

VBL's P/E of 43.4× sits below the FMCG peer median of 44.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.34% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.64%.

VBL P/E
43.4×
Peer median P/E
44.7×
VBL div yield
0.34%
Peer median yield
1.64%

VBL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.6y of VBL history (29%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
VBL 2027₹324₹489₹739+11%
VBL 2028₹301₹541₹973+23%
VBL 2029₹289₹599₹1,241+36%
VBL 2030₹288₹663₹1,530+50%
VBL 2031₹286₹734₹1,884+66%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability VBL goes up, or doubles?

63%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
75%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
40%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹884 within 5 years

The bull case for VBL

  • VBL's return on equity of 16.2% ranks in the 75th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • VBL's return on capital employed of 19.7% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹489 (+11%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,241.

The bear case & risks

  • VBL's P/E of 44.2x is lower than 30% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹289.

VBL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.6 years VBL compounded at 29%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹324-₹739, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

VBL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.7%
80% range₹324-₹739
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
35.6%
80% range₹289-₹1,241
P(price ↑)70%
P(price 2×)25%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
66.1%
80% range₹286-₹1,884
P(price ↑)75%
P(price 2×)40%

VBL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
VBL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds VBL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the VBL price target & forecast page.

VBL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. VBL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

VBL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy VBL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.64%3.8×
Zerodha25.70%3.9×
Groww25.74%3.9×
DhanCHEAPEST23.11%4.3×
Paytm Money23.27%4.3×
Pocketful29.86%3.3×
Fyers31.25%3.2×
Anand Rathi30.11%3.3×
Bajaj Broking24.00%4.2×
Share India30.21%3.3×

Compare every broker on the VBL MTF page.

VBL vs peers,FMCG comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
VBL (this stock)43.4×0.34%₹1.47L Cr
ITC18.2×5.07%₹3.58L Cr
HINDUNILVR44.7×1.96%₹4.92L Cr
NESTLEIND80.1×0.78%₹2.97L Cr
TATACONSUM64.9×0.92%₹1.07L Cr
BRITANNIA51.0×1.64%₹1.33L Cr
DABUR36.7×2.01%₹72,732 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED (VBL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the FMCG sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.47L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the VBL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

VBL analysis, FAQs

Is VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED (VBL) a good buy?

On the numbers, VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED (VBL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 43.4× earnings, ROE of 16.2%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is VBL overvalued or undervalued?

VBL trades at 43.4× earnings versus a peer median of 44.7×, so it screens cheaper than its FMCG peers.

What is the VBL share price target for 2031?

VBL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹734, with an 80% range of ₹286-₹1,884 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability VBL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of VBL reaching ₹884 (2×) within 5 years is 40%.

What is the bull case for VBL?

VBL's return on equity of 16.2% ranks in the 75th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. VBL's return on capital employed of 19.7% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹489 (+11%).

What are the risks in VBL?

VBL's P/E of 44.2x is lower than 30% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on VBL