Case study

ADANIGREEN

Adani Green

High-risk on the numbers1y model -19.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Adani Green (ADANIGREEN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ADANIGREEN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Adani Green (ADANIGREEN) trades at ₹1,550,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 14/100.

On the numbers, Adani Green (ADANIGREEN) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 14/100, weighing expensive at 140.0× earnings, ROE of 11.4%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on ADANIGREEN

The central tension here is a company building real renewable capacity while its stock prices in a future that the present numbers do not yet support. A P/E near 140 against single digit ROCE and modest ROE says the market is paying for installed gigawatts and decades of contracted offtake, not today's returns on capital. The weak Piotroski score of 3 and zero dividend point to heavy capex and balance sheet strain typical of an infrastructure builder. Watch whether cash generation and ROCE rise as projects commission, or whether the financing burden keeps swallowing the growth.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.

ADANIGREEN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2.55L Cr
Current price
₹1,550
P/E ratio
140.0×
P/B ratio
12.81×
Book value
₹121
ROCE
7.4%
ROE
11.4%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is ADANIGREEN overvalued? ADANIGREEN P/E vs its Power

ADANIGREEN's P/E of 140.0× sits above the Power peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

ADANIGREEN P/E
140.0×
Peer median P/E
25.6×
Peer median yield
1.45%

ADANIGREEN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ADANIGREEN history (-10%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ADANIGREEN 2027₹657₹1,213₹2,246-19%
ADANIGREEN 2028₹409₹979₹2,331-35%
ADANIGREEN 2029₹272₹789₹2,288-47%
ADANIGREEN 2030₹184₹637₹2,184-58%
ADANIGREEN 2031₹130₹514₹2,040-66%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ADANIGREEN goes up, or doubles?

33%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
16%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
5%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,005 within 5 years

The bull case for ADANIGREEN

  • Adani Green is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,288.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 140.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 12.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Return on equity is a soft 11.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹272.

ADANIGREEN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years ADANIGREEN compounded at -10%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹657₹2,246, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ADANIGREEN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
19.2%
80% range₹657–₹2,246
P(price ↑)33%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
47.5%
80% range₹272–₹2,288
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
65.8%
80% range₹130–₹2,040
P(price ↑)16%
P(price 2×)5%

ADANIGREEN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ADANIGREEN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ADANIGREEN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ADANIGREEN price target & forecast page.

ADANIGREEN Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ADANIGREEN scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

ADANIGREEN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ADANIGREEN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox37.1%2.7×
Zerodha31.6%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST30.1%3.3×

Compare every broker on the ADANIGREEN MTF page.

ADANIGREEN vs peers,Power comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ADANIGREEN (this stock)140.0×₹2.55L Cr
NTPC13.2×2.27%₹3.56L Cr
POWERGRID16.9×3.11%₹2.69L Cr
TATAPOWER33.8×0.62%₹1.30L Cr
NHPC20.9×2.44%₹78,614 Cr
ADANIPOWER35.3×0.00%₹4.51L Cr
SUZLON25.6×0.00%₹80,826 Cr

About Adani Green: sector, index & market-cap context

Adani Green (ADANIGREEN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.55L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the ADANIGREEN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Adani Green's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ADANIGREEN analysis, FAQs

Is Adani Green (ADANIGREEN) a good buy?

On the numbers, Adani Green (ADANIGREEN) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 14/100, weighing expensive at 140.0× earnings, ROE of 11.4%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ADANIGREEN overvalued or undervalued?

ADANIGREEN trades at 140.0× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens richer than its Power peers.

What is the ADANIGREEN share price target for 2031?

ADANIGREEN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹514, with an 80% range of ₹130₹2,040 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ADANIGREEN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ADANIGREEN reaching ₹3,005 (2×) within 5 years is 5%.

What is the bull case for ADANIGREEN?

Adani Green is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in ADANIGREEN?

A rich 140.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 12.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. Return on equity is a soft 11.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on ADANIGREEN