NTPC
Ntpc Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Ntpc Limited (NTPC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NTPC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Ntpc Limited (NTPC) trades at ₹342,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100.
On the numbers, Ntpc Limited (NTPC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.0× earnings, ROE of 14.0%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on NTPC
NTPC reads as a regulated, asset-heavy utility, and the gap between a 14% ROE and an 8.33% ROCE is the tell: a chunk of that equity return is borrowed, not operational. The 13.2 P/E and 2.27% yield say the market is paying for steady regulated returns and dividends, not growth. The Piotroski 4/8 is the wrinkle worth sitting with, since it hints fundamental momentum is soft beneath the stability. The question is whether heavy capex eventually lifts core returns or just expands the balance sheet.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.
NTPC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How NTPC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- NTPC's market cap of 3.32L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NTPC's book value of ₹210 ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NTPC's promoter holding of 51.1% ranks in the 33rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NTPC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 17.0% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NTPC's 3-year revenue growth of 2.0% ranks in the 27th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NTPC's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.33x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is NTPC overvalued? NTPC P/E vs its Power
NTPC's P/E of 12.0× sits below the Power peer median of 20.9×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.61% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.66%.
NTPC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NTPC history (10%/yr drift, 22%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTPC 2027 | ₹279 | ₹368 | ₹485 | +7% |
| NTPC 2028 | ₹267 | ₹395 | ₹585 | +15% |
| NTPC 2029 | ₹262 | ₹424 | ₹685 | +24% |
| NTPC 2030 | ₹261 | ₹455 | ₹794 | +33% |
| NTPC 2031 | ₹264 | ₹488 | ₹903 | +43% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NTPC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NTPC
- NTPC's P/E of 12.0x is lower than 82% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NTPC's return on equity of 14.0% ranks in the 68th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹368 (+7%).
- Relatively low volatility (22%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹685.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹262.
NTPC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years NTPC compounded at 10%/year with annualized volatility of 22%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹279-₹485, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NTPC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NTPC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NTPC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NTPC price target & forecast page.
NTPC Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NTPC scores 5/8, mixed financial health.
NTPC MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NTPC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Zerodha | 22.60% | 4.4× |
| Groww | 22.56% | 4.4× |
| Dhan | 22.00% | 4.5× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Pocketful | 26.50% | 3.8× |
| Anand Rathi | 26.50% | 3.8× |
| Bajaj Broking | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Share India | 26.50% | 3.8× |
Compare every broker on the NTPC MTF page.
NTPC vs peers,Power comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTPC (this stock) | 12.0× | 1.61% | ₹3.32L Cr |
| POWERGRID | 15.9× | 3.31% | ₹2.53L Cr |
| TATAPOWER | 31.1× | 0.66% | ₹1.22L Cr |
| NHPC | 20.4× | 2.09% | ₹77,266 Cr |
| ADANIGREEN | 117.0× | 0.00% | ₹2.26L Cr |
| ADANIPOWER | 28.3× | 0.00% | ₹4.03L Cr |
| SUZLON | 20.9× | 0.00% | ₹65,646 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Ntpc Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Ntpc Limited (NTPC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.32L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the NTPC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ntpc Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NTPC analysis, FAQs
Is Ntpc Limited (NTPC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Ntpc Limited (NTPC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.0× earnings, ROE of 14.0%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NTPC overvalued or undervalued?
NTPC trades at 12.0× earnings versus a peer median of 20.9×, so it screens cheaper than its Power peers.
What is the NTPC share price target for 2031?
NTPC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹488, with an 80% range of ₹264-₹903 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NTPC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NTPC reaching ₹685 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.
What is the bull case for NTPC?
NTPC's P/E of 12.0x is lower than 82% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NTPC's return on equity of 14.0% ranks in the 68th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹368 (+7%).
What are the risks in NTPC?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.