ADANIPOWER
Adani Power
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Adani Power (ADANIPOWER) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ADANIPOWER a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Adani Power (ADANIPOWER) trades at ₹234,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100.
On the numbers, Adani Power (ADANIPOWER) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 35.3× earnings, ROE of 21.1%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on ADANIPOWER
The real tension here is a power generator earning genuine utility-grade returns (ROE above 21 percent, ROCE in the high teens) yet trading at a P/E in the mid-thirties that looks more like a growth stock than a thermal operator. So the debate is whether merchant tariffs and capacity additions can keep earnings climbing fast enough to grow into that multiple, or whether the price already banks years of expansion. Watch the Piotroski score of 3, which flags weakness in cash quality, leverage or margins beneath the headline returns. With zero dividend, every rupee is being reinvested, so execution on new capacity is what the valuation is paying for.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
ADANIPOWER fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ADANIPOWER overvalued? ADANIPOWER P/E vs its Power
ADANIPOWER's P/E of 35.3× sits above the Power peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
ADANIPOWER share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ADANIPOWER history (23%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADANIPOWER 2027 | ₹154 | ₹266 | ₹462 | +15% |
| ADANIPOWER 2028 | ₹141 | ₹303 | ₹657 | +31% |
| ADANIPOWER 2029 | ₹137 | ₹348 | ₹896 | +50% |
| ADANIPOWER 2030 | ₹134 | ₹402 | ₹1,210 | +74% |
| ADANIPOWER 2031 | ₹138 | ₹464 | ₹1,553 | +100% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ADANIPOWER goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ADANIPOWER
- High return on equity (21.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹266 (+15%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹896.
The bear case & risks
- At 35.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹137.
ADANIPOWER volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ADANIPOWER compounded at 23%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹154–₹462, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ADANIPOWER price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ADANIPOWER price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ADANIPOWER hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ADANIPOWER price target & forecast page.
ADANIPOWER Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ADANIPOWER scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
ADANIPOWER MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ADANIPOWER with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.3% | 2.8× |
| Zerodha | 30.1% | 3.3× |
| Groww | 30.2% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.0% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the ADANIPOWER MTF page.
ADANIPOWER vs peers,Power comparison
About Adani Power: sector, index & market-cap context
Adani Power (ADANIPOWER) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹4.51L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the ADANIPOWER Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Adani Power's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ADANIPOWER analysis, FAQs
Is Adani Power (ADANIPOWER) a good buy?
On the numbers, Adani Power (ADANIPOWER) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing premium at 35.3× earnings, ROE of 21.1%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ADANIPOWER overvalued or undervalued?
ADANIPOWER trades at 35.3× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens richer than its Power peers.
What is the ADANIPOWER share price target for 2031?
ADANIPOWER's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹464, with an 80% range of ₹138–₹1,553 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ADANIPOWER doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ADANIPOWER reaching ₹464 (2×) within 5 years is 50%.
What is the bull case for ADANIPOWER?
High return on equity (21.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹266 (+15%).
What are the risks in ADANIPOWER?
At 35.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.