NHPC
NHPC
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NHPC (NHPC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NHPC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NHPC (NHPC) trades at ₹78,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.
On the numbers, NHPC (NHPC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.9× earnings, ROE of 9.3%, a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NHPC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NHPC overvalued? NHPC P/E vs its Power
NHPC's P/E of 20.9× sits below the Power peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.44% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.62%.
NHPC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NHPC history (-14%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHPC 2027 | ₹44 | ₹63 | ₹91 | -16% |
| NHPC 2028 | ₹32 | ₹53 | ₹89 | -30% |
| NHPC 2029 | ₹24 | ₹44 | ₹83 | -41% |
| NHPC 2030 | ₹18 | ₹37 | ₹77 | -51% |
| NHPC 2031 | ₹14 | ₹31 | ₹69 | -59% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NHPC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NHPC
- A 20.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Pays a 2.4% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹83.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 9.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹24.
NHPC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NHPC compounded at -14%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹44–₹91, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NHPC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NHPC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NHPC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NHPC price target & forecast page.
NHPC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NHPC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NHPC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NHPC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| Zerodha | 24.8% | 4.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.0% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the NHPC MTF page.
NHPC vs peers,Power comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHPC (this stock) | 20.9× | 2.44% | ₹78,614 Cr |
| NTPC | 13.2× | 2.27% | ₹3.56L Cr |
| POWERGRID | 16.9× | 3.11% | ₹2.69L Cr |
| TATAPOWER | 33.8× | 0.62% | ₹1.30L Cr |
| ADANIGREEN | 140.0× | 0.00% | ₹2.55L Cr |
| ADANIPOWER | 35.3× | 0.00% | ₹4.51L Cr |
| SUZLON | 25.6× | 0.00% | ₹80,826 Cr |
About NHPC: sector, index & market-cap context
NHPC (NHPC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹78,614 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the NHPC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NHPC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NHPC analysis, FAQs
Is NHPC (NHPC) a good buy?
On the numbers, NHPC (NHPC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.9× earnings, ROE of 9.3%, a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NHPC overvalued or undervalued?
NHPC trades at 20.9× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens cheaper than its Power peers.
What is the NHPC share price target for 2031?
NHPC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹31, with an 80% range of ₹14–₹69 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NHPC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NHPC reaching ₹152 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for NHPC?
A 20.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Pays a 2.4% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in NHPC?
Return on equity is a soft 9.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.