NHPC
Nhpc Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Nhpc Limited (NHPC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NHPC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Nhpc Limited (NHPC) trades at ₹77,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.
On the numbers, Nhpc Limited (NHPC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.4× earnings, ROE of 9.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NHPC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How NHPC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- NHPC's market cap of 77,266 Cr ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NHPC's book value of ₹41 ranks in the 29th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NHPC's promoter holding of 61.4% ranks in the 54th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NHPC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -1.0% ranks in the 28th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NHPC's 3-year revenue growth of 3.0% ranks in the 30th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NHPC's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26x is lower than 10% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is NHPC overvalued? NHPC P/E vs its Power
NHPC's P/E of 20.4× sits below the Power peer median of 20.9×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 2.09% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.66%.
NHPC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NHPC history (11%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHPC 2027 | ₹57 | ₹81 | ₹116 | +5% |
| NHPC 2028 | ₹51 | ₹85 | ₹143 | +11% |
| NHPC 2029 | ₹48 | ₹90 | ₹168 | +17% |
| NHPC 2030 | ₹47 | ₹95 | ₹194 | +24% |
| NHPC 2031 | ₹46 | ₹100 | ₹218 | +30% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NHPC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NHPC
- NHPC's P/E of 20.4x is lower than 62% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NHPC's dividend yield of 2.1% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹168.
The bear case & risks
- NHPC's return on equity of 9.3% ranks in the 45th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹48.
NHPC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years NHPC compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹57-₹116, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NHPC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NHPC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NHPC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NHPC price target & forecast page.
NHPC Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NHPC scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
NHPC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NHPC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 25.14% | 4.0× |
| Zerodha | 24.40% | 4.1× |
| Groww | 24.40% | 4.1× |
| Dhan | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Kotak Neo | 25.00% | 4.0× |
| Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST | 21.76% | 4.6× |
| Pocketful | 28.88% | 3.5× |
| Fyers | 30.30% | 3.3× |
| Anand Rathi | 28.62% | 3.5× |
| Bajaj Broking | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Share India | 28.63% | 3.5× |
Compare every broker on the NHPC MTF page.
NHPC vs peers,Power comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHPC (this stock) | 20.4× | 2.09% | ₹77,266 Cr |
| NTPC | 12.0× | 1.61% | ₹3.32L Cr |
| POWERGRID | 15.9× | 3.31% | ₹2.53L Cr |
| TATAPOWER | 31.1× | 0.66% | ₹1.22L Cr |
| ADANIGREEN | 117.0× | 0.00% | ₹2.26L Cr |
| ADANIPOWER | 28.3× | 0.00% | ₹4.03L Cr |
| SUZLON | 20.9× | 0.00% | ₹65,646 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Nhpc Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Nhpc Limited (NHPC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹77,266 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the NHPC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nhpc Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NHPC analysis, FAQs
Is Nhpc Limited (NHPC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Nhpc Limited (NHPC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.4× earnings, ROE of 9.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NHPC overvalued or undervalued?
NHPC trades at 20.4× earnings versus a peer median of 20.9×, so it screens cheaper than its Power peers.
What is the NHPC share price target for 2031?
NHPC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹100, with an 80% range of ₹46-₹218 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NHPC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NHPC reaching ₹154 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.
What is the bull case for NHPC?
NHPC's P/E of 20.4x is lower than 62% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NHPC's dividend yield of 2.1% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in NHPC?
NHPC's return on equity of 9.3% ranks in the 45th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.