Case study

NHPC

Nhpc Limited

Mixed signals1y model +5.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

53Score

Nhpc Limited (NHPC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NHPC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Nhpc Limited (NHPC) trades at ₹77,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, Nhpc Limited (NHPC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.4× earnings, ROE of 9.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NHPC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹77,266 Cr
Current price
₹77
P/E ratio
20.4×
P/B ratio
1.87×
Book value
₹41
Dividend yield
2.09%
ROCE
5.8%
ROE
9.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How NHPC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is NHPC overvalued? NHPC P/E vs its Power

NHPC's P/E of 20.4× sits below the Power peer median of 20.9×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 2.09% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.66%.

NHPC P/E
20.4×
Peer median P/E
20.9×
NHPC div yield
2.09%
Peer median yield
0.66%

NHPC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NHPC history (11%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NHPC 2027₹57₹81₹116+5%
NHPC 2028₹51₹85₹143+11%
NHPC 2029₹48₹90₹168+17%
NHPC 2030₹47₹95₹194+24%
NHPC 2031₹46₹100₹218+30%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NHPC goes up, or doubles?

58%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
67%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
24%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹154 within 5 years

The bull case for NHPC

  • NHPC's P/E of 20.4x is lower than 62% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NHPC's dividend yield of 2.1% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹168.

The bear case & risks

  • NHPC's return on equity of 9.3% ranks in the 45th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹48.

NHPC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years NHPC compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹57-₹116, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NHPC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.4%
80% range₹57-₹116
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
17.2%
80% range₹48-₹168
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)13%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
30.2%
80% range₹46-₹218
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)24%

NHPC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NHPC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NHPC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NHPC price target & forecast page.

NHPC Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NHPC scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

NHPC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NHPC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox25.14%4.0×
Zerodha24.40%4.1×
Groww24.40%4.1×
Dhan23.00%4.3×
Kotak Neo25.00%4.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST21.76%4.6×
Pocketful28.88%3.5×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi28.62%3.5×
Bajaj Broking24.00%4.2×
Share India28.63%3.5×

Compare every broker on the NHPC MTF page.

NHPC vs peers,Power comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NHPC (this stock)20.4×2.09%₹77,266 Cr
NTPC12.0×1.61%₹3.32L Cr
POWERGRID15.9×3.31%₹2.53L Cr
TATAPOWER31.1×0.66%₹1.22L Cr
ADANIGREEN117.0×0.00%₹2.26L Cr
ADANIPOWER28.3×0.00%₹4.03L Cr
SUZLON20.9×0.00%₹65,646 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Nhpc Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Nhpc Limited (NHPC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹77,266 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NHPC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nhpc Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NHPC analysis, FAQs

Is Nhpc Limited (NHPC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Nhpc Limited (NHPC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.4× earnings, ROE of 9.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NHPC overvalued or undervalued?

NHPC trades at 20.4× earnings versus a peer median of 20.9×, so it screens cheaper than its Power peers.

What is the NHPC share price target for 2031?

NHPC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹100, with an 80% range of ₹46-₹218 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NHPC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NHPC reaching ₹154 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.

What is the bull case for NHPC?

NHPC's P/E of 20.4x is lower than 62% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NHPC's dividend yield of 2.1% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in NHPC?

NHPC's return on equity of 9.3% ranks in the 45th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on NHPC