Case study

TATAPOWER

Tata Power Company Limited

Mixed signals1y model +9.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

47Score

Tata Power Company Limited (TATAPOWER) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TATAPOWER a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Tata Power Company Limited (TATAPOWER) trades at ₹381,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.

On the numbers, Tata Power Company Limited (TATAPOWER) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 31.1× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TATAPOWER fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.22L Cr
Current price
₹381
P/E ratio
31.1×
P/B ratio
3.07×
Book value
₹124
Dividend yield
0.66%
ROCE
10.5%
ROE
10.2%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How TATAPOWER ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is TATAPOWER overvalued? TATAPOWER P/E vs its Power

TATAPOWER's P/E of 31.1× sits above the Power peer median of 20.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.66% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.66%.

TATAPOWER P/E
31.1×
Peer median P/E
20.9×
TATAPOWER div yield
0.66%
Peer median yield
0.66%

TATAPOWER share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TATAPOWER history (17%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TATAPOWER 2027₹301₹416₹573+9%
TATAPOWER 2028₹288₹454₹716+19%
TATAPOWER 2029₹285₹496₹863+30%
TATAPOWER 2030₹283₹541₹1,037+42%
TATAPOWER 2031₹285₹591₹1,226+55%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TATAPOWER goes up, or doubles?

64%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
78%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
32%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹761 within 5 years

The bull case for TATAPOWER

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹416 (+9%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹863.

The bear case & risks

  • TATAPOWER's P/E of 31.1x is lower than 44% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • TATAPOWER's return on equity of 10.2% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹285.

TATAPOWER volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years TATAPOWER compounded at 17%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹301-₹573, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TATAPOWER price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.2%
80% range₹301-₹573
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
30.3%
80% range₹285-₹863
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
55.4%
80% range₹285-₹1,226
P(price ↑)78%
P(price 2×)32%

TATAPOWER price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TATAPOWER simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TATAPOWER hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TATAPOWER price target & forecast page.

TATAPOWER Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TATAPOWER scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

TATAPOWER MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TATAPOWER with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.48%4.3×
Zerodha23.00%4.3×
Groww23.03%4.3×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Paytm Money20.81%4.8×
Pocketful27.20%3.7×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.96%3.7×
Bajaj Broking22.00%4.5×
Share India27.03%3.7×

Compare every broker on the TATAPOWER MTF page.

TATAPOWER vs peers,Power comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
TATAPOWER (this stock)31.1×0.66%₹1.22L Cr
NTPC12.0×1.61%₹3.32L Cr
POWERGRID15.9×3.31%₹2.53L Cr
NHPC20.4×2.09%₹77,266 Cr
ADANIGREEN117.0×0.00%₹2.26L Cr
ADANIPOWER28.3×0.00%₹4.03L Cr
SUZLON20.9×0.00%₹65,646 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Tata Power Company Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Tata Power Company Limited (TATAPOWER) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.22L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the TATAPOWER Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tata Power Company Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TATAPOWER analysis, FAQs

Is Tata Power Company Limited (TATAPOWER) a good buy?

On the numbers, Tata Power Company Limited (TATAPOWER) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 31.1× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TATAPOWER overvalued or undervalued?

TATAPOWER trades at 31.1× earnings versus a peer median of 20.9×, so it screens richer than its Power peers.

What is the TATAPOWER share price target for 2031?

TATAPOWER's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹591, with an 80% range of ₹285-₹1,226 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TATAPOWER doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TATAPOWER reaching ₹761 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.

What is the bull case for TATAPOWER?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹416 (+9%).

What are the risks in TATAPOWER?

TATAPOWER's P/E of 31.1x is lower than 44% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. TATAPOWER's return on equity of 10.2% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on TATAPOWER