Case study

TATAPOWER

Tata Power

Tread carefully1y model -6.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Tata Power (TATAPOWER) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TATAPOWER a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Tata Power (TATAPOWER) trades at ₹406,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Tata Power (TATAPOWER) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 33.8× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TATAPOWER fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.30L Cr
Current price
₹406
P/E ratio
33.8×
P/B ratio
3.27×
Book value
₹124
Dividend yield
0.62%
ROCE
10.5%
ROE
10.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is TATAPOWER overvalued? TATAPOWER P/E vs its Power

TATAPOWER's P/E of 33.8× sits above the Power peer median of 25.6×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.62% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.62%.

TATAPOWER P/E
33.8×
Peer median P/E
25.6×
TATAPOWER div yield
0.62%
Peer median yield
0.62%

TATAPOWER share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TATAPOWER history (-4%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TATAPOWER 2027₹270₹375₹526-7%
TATAPOWER 2028₹217₹348₹553-14%
TATAPOWER 2029₹183₹322₹572-20%
TATAPOWER 2030₹156₹298₹581-26%
TATAPOWER 2031₹134₹277₹583-31%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TATAPOWER goes up, or doubles?

40%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
26%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
3%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹805 within 5 years

The bull case for TATAPOWER

  • Tata Power is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹572.

The bear case & risks

  • At 33.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 10.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹183.

TATAPOWER volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years TATAPOWER compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹270₹526, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TATAPOWER price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.7%
80% range₹270–₹526
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
19.9%
80% range₹183–₹572
P(price ↑)31%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
31.1%
80% range₹134–₹583
P(price ↑)26%
P(price 2×)3%

TATAPOWER price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TATAPOWER simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TATAPOWER hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TATAPOWER price target & forecast page.

TATAPOWER Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TATAPOWER scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

TATAPOWER MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TATAPOWER with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.4%3.6×
Zerodha23.4%4.3×
DhanCHEAPEST22.0%4.5×

Compare every broker on the TATAPOWER MTF page.

TATAPOWER vs peers,Power comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
TATAPOWER (this stock)33.8×0.62%₹1.30L Cr
NTPC13.2×2.27%₹3.56L Cr
POWERGRID16.9×3.11%₹2.69L Cr
NHPC20.9×2.44%₹78,614 Cr
ADANIGREEN140.0×0.00%₹2.55L Cr
ADANIPOWER35.3×0.00%₹4.51L Cr
SUZLON25.6×0.00%₹80,826 Cr

About Tata Power: sector, index & market-cap context

Tata Power (TATAPOWER) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Power sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.30L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the TATAPOWER Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tata Power's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TATAPOWER analysis, FAQs

Is Tata Power (TATAPOWER) a good buy?

On the numbers, Tata Power (TATAPOWER) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 33.8× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TATAPOWER overvalued or undervalued?

TATAPOWER trades at 33.8× earnings versus a peer median of 25.6×, so it screens richer than its Power peers.

What is the TATAPOWER share price target for 2031?

TATAPOWER's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹277, with an 80% range of ₹134₹583 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TATAPOWER doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TATAPOWER reaching ₹805 (2×) within 5 years is 3%.

What is the bull case for TATAPOWER?

Tata Power is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in TATAPOWER?

At 33.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 10.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on TATAPOWER