BPCL
Bharat Petroleum Corp
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BPCL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) trades at ₹309,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.
On the numbers, Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.1× earnings, ROE of 28.8%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
BPCL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is BPCL overvalued? BPCL P/E vs its Energy
BPCL's P/E of 5.1× sits below the Energy peer median of 11.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 5.67% dividend yield is above the peer median of 4.23%.
BPCL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of BPCL history (0%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPCL 2027 | ₹204 | ₹297 | ₹428 | -3% |
| BPCL 2028 | ₹168 | ₹285 | ₹478 | -7% |
| BPCL 2029 | ₹143 | ₹274 | ₹517 | -11% |
| BPCL 2030 | ₹127 | ₹262 | ₹551 | -15% |
| BPCL 2031 | ₹112 | ₹251 | ₹576 | -18% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BPCL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BPCL
- Trades at just 5.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 1.34×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- High return on equity (28.8%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (25.7%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 5.7% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹517.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹143.
BPCL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years BPCL compounded at 0%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹204–₹428, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BPCL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BPCL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BPCL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BPCL price target & forecast page.
BPCL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. BPCL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
BPCL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BPCL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.1% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 25.7% | 3.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.1% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the BPCL MTF page.
BPCL vs peers,Energy comparison
About Bharat Petroleum Corp: sector, index & market-cap context
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.34L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the BPCL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bharat Petroleum Corp's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BPCL analysis, FAQs
Is Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.1× earnings, ROE of 28.8%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BPCL overvalued or undervalued?
BPCL trades at 5.1× earnings versus a peer median of 11.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Energy peers.
What is the BPCL share price target for 2031?
BPCL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹251, with an 80% range of ₹112–₹576 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BPCL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BPCL reaching ₹613 (2×) within 5 years is 8%.
What is the bull case for BPCL?
Trades at just 5.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.34×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. High return on equity (28.8%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
What are the risks in BPCL?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.