Case study

GAIL

Gail (India) Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +3.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

61Score

Gail (India) Limited (GAIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GAIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Gail (India) Limited (GAIL) trades at ₹174,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, Gail (India) Limited (GAIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.6× earnings, ROE of 8.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GAIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.14L Cr
Current price
₹174
P/E ratio
11.6×
P/B ratio
1.29×
Book value
₹135
Dividend yield
2.88%
ROCE
9.7%
ROE
8.7%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How GAIL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is GAIL overvalued? GAIL P/E vs its Energy

GAIL's P/E of 11.6× sits above the Energy peer median of 10.8×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 2.88% dividend yield is below the peer median of 3.56%.

GAIL P/E
11.6×
Peer median P/E
10.8×
GAIL div yield
2.88%
Peer median yield
3.56%

GAIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of GAIL history (9%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GAIL 2027₹124₹180₹263+4%
GAIL 2028₹112₹188₹314+8%
GAIL 2029₹103₹195₹367+12%
GAIL 2030₹97₹203₹423+17%
GAIL 2031₹94₹211₹471+21%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GAIL goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
61%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
21%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹347 within 5 years

The bull case for GAIL

  • GAIL's P/E of 11.6x is lower than 83% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.29×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • GAIL's dividend yield of 2.9% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹367.

The bear case & risks

  • GAIL's return on equity of 8.7% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹103.

GAIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years GAIL compounded at 9%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹124-₹263, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GAIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.9%
80% range₹124-₹263
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
12.3%
80% range₹103-₹367
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)12%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
21.3%
80% range₹94-₹471
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)21%

GAIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GAIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GAIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GAIL price target & forecast page.

GAIL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GAIL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

GAIL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GAIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox25.16%4.0×
Zerodha24.40%4.1×
Groww24.46%4.1×
Dhan23.00%4.3×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST21.65%4.6×
Paytm Money22.38%4.5×
Pocketful28.64%3.5×
Anand Rathi28.65%3.5×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India28.73%3.5×

Compare every broker on the GAIL MTF page.

GAIL vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GAIL (this stock)11.6×2.88%₹1.14L Cr
RELIANCE24.2×0.45%₹18.06L Cr
BPCL9.0×5.45%₹1.39L Cr
ONGC6.9×5.13%₹3.00L Cr
IOC6.0×5.75%₹2.02L Cr
IGL13.7×2.14%₹21,272 Cr
PETRONET10.8×3.56%₹42,090 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Gail (India) Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Gail (India) Limited (GAIL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.14L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GAIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gail (India) Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GAIL analysis, FAQs

Is Gail (India) Limited (GAIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Gail (India) Limited (GAIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.6× earnings, ROE of 8.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GAIL overvalued or undervalued?

GAIL trades at 11.6× earnings versus a peer median of 10.8×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.

What is the GAIL share price target for 2031?

GAIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹211, with an 80% range of ₹94-₹471 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GAIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GAIL reaching ₹347 (2×) within 5 years is 21%.

What is the bull case for GAIL?

GAIL's P/E of 11.6x is lower than 83% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.29×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. GAIL's dividend yield of 2.9% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in GAIL?

GAIL's return on equity of 8.7% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on GAIL