GAIL
GAIL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
GAIL (GAIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is GAIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
GAIL (GAIL) trades at ₹177,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.
On the numbers, GAIL (GAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.4× earnings, ROE of 8.7%, a 31% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
GAIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is GAIL overvalued? GAIL P/E vs its Energy
GAIL's P/E of 15.4× sits above the Energy peer median of 11.0×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 4.23% dividend yield is above the peer median of 4.23%.
GAIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GAIL history (-10%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAIL 2027 | ₹105 | ₹150 | ₹217 | -13% |
| GAIL 2028 | ₹77 | ₹130 | ₹220 | -25% |
| GAIL 2029 | ₹59 | ₹112 | ₹211 | -35% |
| GAIL 2030 | ₹46 | ₹97 | ₹203 | -44% |
| GAIL 2031 | ₹36 | ₹83 | ₹193 | -52% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability GAIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for GAIL
- A 15.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Low price-to-book of 1.31×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Pays a 4.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹211.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 8.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 31% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹59.
GAIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years GAIL compounded at -10%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹105–₹217, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
GAIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
GAIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds GAIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the GAIL price target & forecast page.
GAIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GAIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
GAIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GAIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 28.9% | 3.5× |
| Zerodha | 24.7% | 4.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.0% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the GAIL MTF page.
GAIL vs peers,Energy comparison
About GAIL: sector, index & market-cap context
GAIL (GAIL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.17L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the GAIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of GAIL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
GAIL analysis, FAQs
Is GAIL (GAIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, GAIL (GAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.4× earnings, ROE of 8.7%, a 31% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is GAIL overvalued or undervalued?
GAIL trades at 15.4× earnings versus a peer median of 11.0×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.
What is the GAIL share price target for 2031?
GAIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹83, with an 80% range of ₹36–₹193 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability GAIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of GAIL reaching ₹348 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for GAIL?
A 15.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 1.31×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. Pays a 4.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in GAIL?
Return on equity is a soft 8.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 31% chance of finishing above today's price.