Case study

PETRONET

Petronet LNG

Screens attractive1y model -9.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Petronet LNG (PETRONET) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is PETRONET a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Petronet LNG (PETRONET) trades at ₹286,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100.

On the numbers, Petronet LNG (PETRONET) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.0× earnings, ROE of 18.6%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

PETRONET fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹42,982 Cr
Current price
₹286
P/E ratio
11.0×
P/B ratio
1.92×
Book value
₹149
Dividend yield
3.49%
ROCE
22.7%
ROE
18.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is PETRONET overvalued? PETRONET P/E vs its Energy

PETRONET's P/E of 11.0× sits above the Energy peer median of 11.0×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 3.49% dividend yield is below the peer median of 4.23%.

PETRONET P/E
11.0×
Peer median P/E
11.0×
PETRONET div yield
3.49%
Peer median yield
4.23%

PETRONET share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PETRONET history (-6%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
PETRONET 2027₹179₹262₹379-9%
PETRONET 2028₹138₹236₹401-18%
PETRONET 2029₹110₹212₹410-26%
PETRONET 2030₹90₹193₹401-33%
PETRONET 2031₹74₹174₹397-40%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability PETRONET goes up, or doubles?

37%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
22%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
3%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹577 within 5 years

The bull case for PETRONET

  • Trades at just 11.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • High return on equity (18.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (22.7%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Pays a 3.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹410.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹110.

PETRONET volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years PETRONET compounded at -6%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹179₹379, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

PETRONET price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.4%
80% range₹179–₹379
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
26.5%
80% range₹110–₹410
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
39.9%
80% range₹74–₹397
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)3%

PETRONET price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
PETRONET simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds PETRONET hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the PETRONET price target & forecast page.

PETRONET Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. PETRONET scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

PETRONET MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PETRONET with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.1%3.3×
Zerodha25.7%3.9×
DhanCHEAPEST23.1%4.3×

Compare every broker on the PETRONET MTF page.

PETRONET vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
PETRONET (this stock)11.0×3.49%₹42,982 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
BPCL5.1×5.67%₹1.34L Cr
ONGC7.4×4.99%₹3.09L Cr
IOC4.8×4.85%₹2.04L Cr
GAIL15.4×4.23%₹1.17L Cr
IGL15.3×2.50%₹23,728 Cr

About Petronet LNG: sector, index & market-cap context

Petronet LNG (PETRONET) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹42,982 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the PETRONET Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Petronet LNG's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

PETRONET analysis, FAQs

Is Petronet LNG (PETRONET) a good buy?

On the numbers, Petronet LNG (PETRONET) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.0× earnings, ROE of 18.6%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is PETRONET overvalued or undervalued?

PETRONET trades at 11.0× earnings versus a peer median of 11.0×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.

What is the PETRONET share price target for 2031?

PETRONET's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹174, with an 80% range of ₹74₹397 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability PETRONET doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of PETRONET reaching ₹577 (2×) within 5 years is 3%.

What is the bull case for PETRONET?

Trades at just 11.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (18.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (22.7%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in PETRONET?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on PETRONET