ONGC
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ONGC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) trades at ₹239,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.9× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ONGC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How ONGC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- ONGC's market cap of 3.00L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ONGC's book value of ₹296 ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ONGC's promoter holding of 58.9% ranks in the 49th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ONGC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 1.0% ranks in the 30th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ONGC's 3-year revenue growth of 2.0% ranks in the 27th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ONGC's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47x is lower than 37% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is ONGC overvalued? ONGC P/E vs its Energy
ONGC's P/E of 6.9× sits below the Energy peer median of 10.8×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 5.13% dividend yield is above the peer median of 3.56%.
ONGC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ONGC history (5%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONGC 2027 | ₹177 | ₹247 | ₹344 | +3% |
| ONGC 2028 | ₹159 | ₹255 | ₹410 | +7% |
| ONGC 2029 | ₹148 | ₹264 | ₹471 | +11% |
| ONGC 2030 | ₹140 | ₹273 | ₹533 | +14% |
| ONGC 2031 | ₹134 | ₹282 | ₹593 | +18% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ONGC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ONGC
- ONGC's P/E of 6.9x is lower than 92% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Low price-to-book of 0.81×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- ONGC's dividend yield of 5.1% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹471.
The bear case & risks
- ONGC's return on equity of 11.7% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹148.
ONGC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years ONGC compounded at 5%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹177-₹344, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ONGC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ONGC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ONGC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ONGC price target & forecast page.
ONGC Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ONGC scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
ONGC MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ONGC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 24.30% | 4.1× |
| Zerodha | 23.70% | 4.2× |
| Groww | 23.74% | 4.2× |
| Dhan | 22.00% | 4.5× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 20.79% | 4.8× |
| Paytm Money | 21.36% | 4.7× |
| Pocketful | 27.96% | 3.6× |
| Anand Rathi | 27.77% | 3.6× |
| Bajaj Broking | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Share India | 27.86% | 3.6× |
Compare every broker on the ONGC MTF page.
ONGC vs peers,Energy comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONGC (this stock) | 6.9× | 5.13% | ₹3.00L Cr |
| RELIANCE | 24.2× | 0.45% | ₹18.06L Cr |
| BPCL | 9.0× | 5.45% | ₹1.39L Cr |
| IOC | 6.0× | 5.75% | ₹2.02L Cr |
| GAIL | 11.6× | 2.88% | ₹1.14L Cr |
| IGL | 13.7× | 2.14% | ₹21,272 Cr |
| PETRONET | 10.8× | 3.56% | ₹42,090 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.00L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the ONGC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ONGC analysis, FAQs
Is Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.9× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ONGC overvalued or undervalued?
ONGC trades at 6.9× earnings versus a peer median of 10.8×, so it screens cheaper than its Energy peers.
What is the ONGC share price target for 2031?
ONGC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹282, with an 80% range of ₹134-₹593 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ONGC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ONGC reaching ₹478 (2×) within 5 years is 18%.
What is the bull case for ONGC?
ONGC's P/E of 6.9x is lower than 92% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 0.81×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. ONGC's dividend yield of 5.1% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in ONGC?
ONGC's return on equity of 11.7% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.