ONGC
ONGC
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
ONGC (ONGC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ONGC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
ONGC (ONGC) trades at ₹245,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100.
On the numbers, ONGC (ONGC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.4× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 38% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on ONGC
The single-digit P/E and near-5% dividend yield mark ONGC as a classic cheap energy cyclical, where the real question is whether that low rating reflects deep value or a market verdict that crude-linked earnings cannot grow durably. Decent ROCE and ROE show the upstream business still earns its keep, yet the middling Piotroski score of 4 suggests the recent operating trend is not clean. Watch whether free cash actually covers that fat payout across the price cycle, and how much of any windfall gets reinvested in declining fields versus returned. Cheapness here is a story about the denominator's stability, not just the multiple.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
ONGC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ONGC overvalued? ONGC P/E vs its Energy
ONGC's P/E of 7.4× sits below the Energy peer median of 11.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 4.99% dividend yield is above the peer median of 4.23%.
ONGC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ONGC history (-5%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONGC 2027 | ₹159 | ₹226 | ₹320 | -8% |
| ONGC 2028 | ₹127 | ₹209 | ₹340 | -15% |
| ONGC 2029 | ₹106 | ₹191 | ₹352 | -22% |
| ONGC 2030 | ₹88 | ₹176 | ₹357 | -29% |
| ONGC 2031 | ₹74 | ₹163 | ₹357 | -34% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ONGC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ONGC
- Trades at just 7.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 0.83×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Pays a 5.0% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹352.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 11.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 38% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹106.
ONGC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ONGC compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹159–₹320, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ONGC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ONGC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ONGC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ONGC price target & forecast page.
ONGC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ONGC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
ONGC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ONGC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 28.2% | 3.5× |
| Zerodha | 24.1% | 4.1× |
| Groww | 24.1% | 4.2× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the ONGC MTF page.
ONGC vs peers,Energy comparison
About ONGC: sector, index & market-cap context
ONGC (ONGC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.09L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the ONGC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ONGC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ONGC analysis, FAQs
Is ONGC (ONGC) a good buy?
On the numbers, ONGC (ONGC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.4× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 38% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ONGC overvalued or undervalued?
ONGC trades at 7.4× earnings versus a peer median of 11.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Energy peers.
What is the ONGC share price target for 2031?
ONGC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹163, with an 80% range of ₹74–₹357 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ONGC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ONGC reaching ₹493 (2×) within 5 years is 4%.
What is the bull case for ONGC?
Trades at just 7.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.83×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. Pays a 5.0% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in ONGC?
Return on equity is a soft 11.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 38% chance of finishing above today's price.