Case study

IGL

Indraprastha Gas

Worth a closer look1y model -20.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IGL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) trades at ₹170,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100.

On the numbers, Indraprastha Gas (IGL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.3× earnings, ROE of 14.0%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IGL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹23,728 Cr
Current price
₹170
P/E ratio
15.3×
P/B ratio
2.07×
Book value
₹82
Dividend yield
2.50%
ROCE
17.9%
ROE
14.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is IGL overvalued? IGL P/E vs its Energy

IGL's P/E of 15.3× sits above the Energy peer median of 11.0×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.50% dividend yield is below the peer median of 4.23%.

IGL P/E
15.3×
Peer median P/E
11.0×
IGL div yield
2.50%
Peer median yield
4.23%

IGL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IGL history (-18%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IGL 2027₹84₹133₹208-21%
IGL 2028₹54₹104₹198-38%
IGL 2029₹37₹82₹181-51%
IGL 2030₹26₹65₹163-61%
IGL 2031₹18₹51₹142-69%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IGL goes up, or doubles?

25%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
7%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹335 within 5 years

The bull case for IGL

  • A 15.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 14.0% return on equity.
  • Pays a 2.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹181.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹37.

IGL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years IGL compounded at -18%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹84₹208, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IGL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
20.9%
80% range₹84–₹208
P(price ↑)25%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
51.3%
80% range₹37–₹181
P(price ↑)12%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
69.5%
80% range₹18–₹142
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)1%

IGL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IGL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IGL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IGL price target & forecast page.

IGL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IGL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

IGL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IGL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST30.1%3.3×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST30.1%3.3×
DhanCHEAPEST30.1%3.3×

Compare every broker on the IGL MTF page.

IGL vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
IGL (this stock)15.3×2.50%₹23,728 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
BPCL5.1×5.67%₹1.34L Cr
ONGC7.4×4.99%₹3.09L Cr
IOC4.8×4.85%₹2.04L Cr
GAIL15.4×4.23%₹1.17L Cr
PETRONET11.0×3.49%₹42,982 Cr

About Indraprastha Gas: sector, index & market-cap context

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹23,728 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the IGL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Indraprastha Gas's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IGL analysis, FAQs

Is Indraprastha Gas (IGL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Indraprastha Gas (IGL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.3× earnings, ROE of 14.0%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IGL overvalued or undervalued?

IGL trades at 15.3× earnings versus a peer median of 11.0×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.

What is the IGL share price target for 2031?

IGL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹51, with an 80% range of ₹18₹142 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IGL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IGL reaching ₹335 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for IGL?

A 15.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 14.0% return on equity. Pays a 2.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.

What are the risks in IGL?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on IGL