IOC
Indian Oil Corporation Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IOC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) trades at ₹143,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.
On the numbers, Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.0× earnings, ROE of 20.7%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IOC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How IOC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- IOC's market cap of 2.02L Cr ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IOC's book value of ₹155 ranks in the 65th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IOC's promoter holding of 51.5% ranks in the 34th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IOC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 63.0% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IOC's 3-year revenue growth of -2.0% ranks in the 20th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IOC's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60x is lower than 30% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is IOC overvalued? IOC P/E vs its Energy
IOC's P/E of 6.0× sits below the Energy peer median of 10.8×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 5.75% dividend yield is above the peer median of 3.56%.
IOC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of IOC history (4%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOC 2027 | ₹102 | ₹145 | ₹204 | +1% |
| IOC 2028 | ₹91 | ₹146 | ₹235 | +2% |
| IOC 2029 | ₹82 | ₹147 | ₹266 | +3% |
| IOC 2030 | ₹75 | ₹149 | ₹294 | +4% |
| IOC 2031 | ₹70 | ₹150 | ₹321 | +5% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IOC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IOC
- IOC's P/E of 6.0x is lower than 93% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Low price-to-book of 0.92×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- IOC's return on equity of 20.7% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IOC's return on capital employed of 18.8% ranks in the 77th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IOC's dividend yield of 5.8% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹266.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹82.
IOC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years IOC compounded at 4%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹102-₹204, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IOC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IOC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IOC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IOC price target & forecast page.
IOC Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. IOC scores 5/8, mixed financial health.
IOC MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IOC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 25.02% | 4.0× |
| Zerodha | 24.30% | 4.1× |
| Groww | 24.31% | 4.1× |
| Dhan | 22.50% | 4.4× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 21.51% | 4.6× |
| Paytm Money | 21.64% | 4.6× |
| Pocketful | 28.75% | 3.5× |
| Anand Rathi | 28.50% | 3.5× |
| Bajaj Broking | 22.00% | 4.5× |
| Share India | 28.56% | 3.5× |
Compare every broker on the IOC MTF page.
IOC vs peers,Energy comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOC (this stock) | 6.0× | 5.75% | ₹2.02L Cr |
| RELIANCE | 24.2× | 0.45% | ₹18.06L Cr |
| BPCL | 9.0× | 5.45% | ₹1.39L Cr |
| ONGC | 6.9× | 5.13% | ₹3.00L Cr |
| GAIL | 11.6× | 2.88% | ₹1.14L Cr |
| IGL | 13.7× | 2.14% | ₹21,272 Cr |
| PETRONET | 10.8× | 3.56% | ₹42,090 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Indian Oil Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.02L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the IOC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Indian Oil Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IOC analysis, FAQs
Is Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.0× earnings, ROE of 20.7%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IOC overvalued or undervalued?
IOC trades at 6.0× earnings versus a peer median of 10.8×, so it screens cheaper than its Energy peers.
What is the IOC share price target for 2031?
IOC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹150, with an 80% range of ₹70-₹321 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IOC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IOC reaching ₹287 (2×) within 5 years is 14%.
What is the bull case for IOC?
IOC's P/E of 6.0x is lower than 93% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 0.92×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. IOC's return on equity of 20.7% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in IOC?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.