IOC
IOC
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
IOC (IOC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IOC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
IOC (IOC) trades at ₹144,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100.
On the numbers, IOC (IOC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.8× earnings, ROE of 20.7%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IOC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is IOC overvalued? IOC P/E vs its Energy
IOC's P/E of 4.8× sits below the Energy peer median of 11.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 4.85% dividend yield is above the peer median of 4.23%.
IOC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IOC history (-8%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOC 2027 | ₹91 | ₹128 | ₹181 | -11% |
| IOC 2028 | ₹71 | ₹114 | ₹186 | -20% |
| IOC 2029 | ₹56 | ₹102 | ₹186 | -29% |
| IOC 2030 | ₹46 | ₹92 | ₹186 | -36% |
| IOC 2031 | ₹38 | ₹82 | ₹180 | -43% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IOC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IOC
- Trades at just 4.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 0.93×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- High return on equity (20.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (18.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 4.8% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹186.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹56.
IOC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years IOC compounded at -8%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹91–₹181, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IOC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IOC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IOC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IOC price target & forecast page.
IOC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IOC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
IOC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IOC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 28.9% | 3.5× |
| Zerodha | 24.6% | 4.1× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.5% | 4.4× |
Compare every broker on the IOC MTF page.
IOC vs peers,Energy comparison
About IOC: sector, index & market-cap context
IOC (IOC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.04L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the IOC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IOC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IOC analysis, FAQs
Is IOC (IOC) a good buy?
On the numbers, IOC (IOC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.8× earnings, ROE of 20.7%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IOC overvalued or undervalued?
IOC trades at 4.8× earnings versus a peer median of 11.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Energy peers.
What is the IOC share price target for 2031?
IOC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹82, with an 80% range of ₹38–₹180 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IOC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IOC reaching ₹287 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for IOC?
Trades at just 4.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.93×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. High return on equity (20.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
What are the risks in IOC?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.