Case study

CASTROLIND

CASTROL INDIA LIMITED

Screens attractive1y model +1.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

72Score

CASTROL INDIA LIMITED (CASTROLIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CASTROLIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

CASTROL INDIA LIMITED (CASTROLIND) trades at ₹192,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100.

On the numbers, CASTROL INDIA LIMITED (CASTROLIND) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.6× earnings, ROE of 45.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CASTROLIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹18,999 Cr
Current price
₹192
P/E ratio
17.6×
P/B ratio
9.95×
Book value
₹19
Dividend yield
4.56%
ROCE
60.3%
ROE
45.9%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How CASTROLIND ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is CASTROLIND overvalued? CASTROLIND P/E vs its Energy

CASTROLIND's P/E of 17.6× sits above the Energy peer median of 11.6×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 4.56% dividend yield is above the peer median of 4.56%.

CASTROLIND P/E
17.6×
Peer median P/E
11.6×
CASTROLIND div yield
4.56%
Peer median yield
4.56%

CASTROLIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of CASTROLIND history (-1%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CASTROLIND 2027₹137₹196₹280+2%
CASTROLIND 2028₹120₹199₹332+4%
CASTROLIND 2029₹108₹203₹382+6%
CASTROLIND 2030₹101₹207₹424+8%
CASTROLIND 2031₹95₹211₹468+10%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CASTROLIND goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
56%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
17%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹384 within 5 years

The bull case for CASTROLIND

  • CASTROLIND's P/E of 17.6x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • CASTROLIND's return on equity of 45.9% ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • CASTROLIND's return on capital employed of 60.3% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • CASTROLIND's dividend yield of 4.6% ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹382.

The bear case & risks

  • A steep 9.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹108.

CASTROLIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years CASTROLIND compounded at -1%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹137-₹280, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CASTROLIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.9%
80% range₹137-₹280
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.8%
80% range₹108-₹382
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
9.8%
80% range₹95-₹468
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)17%

CASTROLIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CASTROLIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CASTROLIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CASTROLIND price target & forecast page.

CASTROLIND Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. CASTROLIND scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

CASTROLIND MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CASTROLIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×
GrowwCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×
DhanCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×
Kotak Neo30.03%3.3×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×
Pocketful26.62%3.8×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×
Bajaj Broking34.00%2.9×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×

Compare every broker on the CASTROLIND MTF page.

CASTROLIND vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CASTROLIND (this stock)17.6×4.56%₹18,999 Cr
RELIANCE24.2×0.45%₹18.06L Cr
BPCL9.0×5.45%₹1.39L Cr
ONGC6.9×5.13%₹3.00L Cr
IOC6.0×5.75%₹2.02L Cr
GAIL11.6×2.88%₹1.14L Cr
IGL13.7×2.14%₹21,272 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About CASTROL INDIA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

CASTROL INDIA LIMITED (CASTROLIND) is a small-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹18,999 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the CASTROLIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of CASTROL INDIA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CASTROLIND analysis, FAQs

Is CASTROL INDIA LIMITED (CASTROLIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, CASTROL INDIA LIMITED (CASTROLIND) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.6× earnings, ROE of 45.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CASTROLIND overvalued or undervalued?

CASTROLIND trades at 17.6× earnings versus a peer median of 11.6×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.

What is the CASTROLIND share price target for 2031?

CASTROLIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹211, with an 80% range of ₹95-₹468 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CASTROLIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CASTROLIND reaching ₹384 (2×) within 5 years is 17%.

What is the bull case for CASTROLIND?

CASTROLIND's P/E of 17.6x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. CASTROLIND's return on equity of 45.9% ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. CASTROLIND's return on capital employed of 60.3% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in CASTROLIND?

A steep 9.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on CASTROLIND