Case study

CASTROLIND

Castrol India

Tread carefully1y model -11.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Castrol India (CASTROLIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CASTROLIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, Castrol India (CASTROLIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CASTROLIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CASTROLIND history (-7%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CASTROLIND 2027₹109₹165₹250-11%
CASTROLIND 2028₹82₹147₹263-21%
CASTROLIND 2029₹64₹130₹268-30%
CASTROLIND 2030₹50₹115₹264-38%
CASTROLIND 2031₹41₹102₹259-45%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CASTROLIND goes up, or doubles?

35%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
21%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
4%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹372 within 5 years

The bull case for CASTROLIND

  • Castrol India is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹268.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹64.

CASTROLIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CASTROLIND compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹109₹250, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CASTROLIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.2%
80% range₹109–₹250
P(price ↑)35%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
30.3%
80% range₹64–₹268
P(price ↑)26%
P(price 2×)3%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
45.0%
80% range₹41–₹259
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)4%

CASTROLIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CASTROLIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CASTROLIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CASTROLIND price target & forecast page.

CASTROLIND MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CASTROLIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST27.0%3.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST27.0%3.7×
DhanCHEAPEST27.0%3.7×

Compare every broker on the CASTROLIND MTF page.

CASTROLIND vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CASTROLIND (this stock)
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
BPCL5.1×5.67%₹1.34L Cr
ONGC7.4×4.99%₹3.09L Cr
IOC4.8×4.85%₹2.04L Cr
GAIL15.4×4.23%₹1.17L Cr
IGL15.3×2.50%₹23,728 Cr

About Castrol India: sector, index & market-cap context

Castrol India (CASTROLIND) is an NSE-listed company in the Energy sector.

How the CASTROLIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Castrol India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CASTROLIND analysis, FAQs

Is Castrol India (CASTROLIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, Castrol India (CASTROLIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CASTROLIND overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for CASTROLIND are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the CASTROLIND share price target for 2031?

CASTROLIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹102, with an 80% range of ₹41₹259 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CASTROLIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CASTROLIND reaching ₹372 (2×) within 5 years is 4%.

What is the bull case for CASTROLIND?

Castrol India is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in CASTROLIND?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on CASTROLIND