MGL
Mahanagar Gas
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Mahanagar Gas (MGL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MGL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Mahanagar Gas (MGL) trades at ₹1,246,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 67/100.
On the numbers, Mahanagar Gas (MGL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 67/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.6× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MGL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MGL overvalued? MGL P/E vs its Energy
MGL's P/E of 14.6× sits above the Energy peer median of 14.6×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 2.41% dividend yield is below the peer median of 4.23%.
MGL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MGL history (-11%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGL 2027 | ₹642 | ₹1,018 | ₹1,620 | -16% |
| MGL 2028 | ₹449 | ₹862 | ₹1,628 | -29% |
| MGL 2029 | ₹324 | ₹735 | ₹1,583 | -39% |
| MGL 2030 | ₹247 | ₹622 | ₹1,508 | -49% |
| MGL 2031 | ₹185 | ₹522 | ₹1,419 | -57% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MGL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MGL
- Trades at just 14.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- A healthy 13.7% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (18.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 2.4% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,583.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹324.
MGL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MGL compounded at -11%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹642–₹1,620, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MGL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MGL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MGL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MGL price target & forecast page.
MGL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MGL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MGL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MGL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 31.1% | 3.2× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 31.1% | 3.2× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 31.1% | 3.2× |
Compare every broker on the MGL MTF page.
MGL vs peers,Energy comparison
About Mahanagar Gas: sector, index & market-cap context
Mahanagar Gas (MGL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,323 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the MGL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mahanagar Gas's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MGL analysis, FAQs
Is Mahanagar Gas (MGL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Mahanagar Gas (MGL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 67/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.6× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MGL overvalued or undervalued?
MGL trades at 14.6× earnings versus a peer median of 14.6×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.
What is the MGL share price target for 2031?
MGL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹522, with an 80% range of ₹185–₹1,419 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MGL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MGL reaching ₹2,418 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for MGL?
Trades at just 14.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 13.7% return on equity. Strong ROCE (18.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in MGL?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.