MGL
Mahanagar Gas Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MGL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) trades at ₹1,140,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.
On the numbers, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.7× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MGL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How MGL ranks against the 2,371 companies in our screener
- MGL's market cap of 11,257 Cr ranks in the 77th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's book value of ₹651 ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's promoter holding of 32.5% ranks in the 9th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 2.0% ranks in the 31st percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's 3-year revenue growth of 9.0% ranks in the 47th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03x is lower than 90% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
Is MGL overvalued? MGL P/E vs its Energy
MGL's P/E of 15.7× sits above the Energy peer median of 11.6×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.63% dividend yield is below the peer median of 2.88%.
MGL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MGL history (8%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGL 2027 | ₹751 | ₹1,172 | ₹1,828 | +3% |
| MGL 2028 | ₹648 | ₹1,205 | ₹2,241 | +6% |
| MGL 2029 | ₹577 | ₹1,239 | ₹2,659 | +9% |
| MGL 2030 | ₹522 | ₹1,274 | ₹3,110 | +12% |
| MGL 2031 | ₹481 | ₹1,310 | ₹3,568 | +15% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MGL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MGL
- MGL's P/E of 15.7x is lower than 72% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's return on equity of 13.7% ranks in the 66th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's return on capital employed of 18.1% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- MGL's dividend yield of 2.6% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,659.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹577.
MGL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years MGL compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹751-₹1,828, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MGL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MGL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MGL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MGL price target & forecast page.
MGL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MGL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
MGL MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MGL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.64% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 30.62% | 3.3× |
| Groww | 30.78% | 3.2× |
| Dhan | 30.62% | 3.3× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 30.58% | 3.3× |
| Paytm Money | 30.84% | 3.2× |
| Pocketful | 31.04% | 3.2× |
| Fyers | 32.26% | 3.1× |
| Anand Rathi | 30.62% | 3.3× |
| Bajaj Broking | 32.00% | 3.1× |
| Share India | 30.74% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the MGL MTF page.
MGL vs peers,Energy comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGL (this stock) | 15.7× | 2.63% | ₹11,257 Cr |
| RELIANCE | 24.0× | 0.45% | ₹17.92L Cr |
| BPCL | 9.0× | 5.45% | ₹1.39L Cr |
| ONGC | 6.9× | 5.13% | ₹3.00L Cr |
| IOC | 6.0× | 5.75% | ₹2.02L Cr |
| GAIL | 11.6× | 2.88% | ₹1.14L Cr |
| IGL | 13.7× | 2.14% | ₹21,272 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 8 Aug 2026
About Mahanagar Gas Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹11,257 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the MGL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mahanagar Gas Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MGL analysis, FAQs
Is Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.7× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MGL overvalued or undervalued?
MGL trades at 15.7× earnings versus a peer median of 11.6×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.
What is the MGL share price target for 2031?
MGL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,310, with an 80% range of ₹481-₹3,568 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MGL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MGL reaching ₹2,279 (2×) within 5 years is 23%.
What is the bull case for MGL?
MGL's P/E of 15.7x is lower than 72% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. MGL's return on equity of 13.7% ranks in the 66th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. MGL's return on capital employed of 18.1% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in MGL?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.