Case study

MRPL

MRPL

Worth a closer look1y model -25.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MRPL (MRPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MRPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MRPL (MRPL) trades at ₹154,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.

On the numbers, MRPL (MRPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.1× earnings, ROE of 14.2%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MRPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹27,071 Cr
Current price
₹154
P/E ratio
14.1×
P/B ratio
1.90×
Book value
₹81
Dividend yield
2.59%
ROCE
17.7%
ROE
14.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MRPL overvalued? MRPL P/E vs its Energy

MRPL's P/E of 14.1× sits above the Energy peer median of 14.1×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 2.59% dividend yield is below the peer median of 4.23%.

MRPL P/E
14.1×
Peer median P/E
14.1×
MRPL div yield
2.59%
Peer median yield
4.23%

MRPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MRPL history (-19%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MRPL 2027₹65₹115₹204-25%
MRPL 2028₹38₹86₹196-44%
MRPL 2029₹23₹64₹176-59%
MRPL 2030₹15₹48₹152-69%
MRPL 2031₹10₹35₹133-77%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MRPL goes up, or doubles?

25%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
8%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹308 within 5 years

The bull case for MRPL

  • Trades at just 14.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • A healthy 14.2% return on equity.
  • Pays a 2.6% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹176.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹23.

MRPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MRPL compounded at -19%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹65₹204, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MRPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
25.1%
80% range₹65–₹204
P(price ↑)25%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
58.7%
80% range₹23–₹176
P(price ↑)13%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
77.1%
80% range₹10–₹133
P(price ↑)8%
P(price 2×)1%

MRPL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MRPL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MRPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MRPL price target & forecast page.

MRPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MRPL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MRPL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MRPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST38.1%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST38.1%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST38.1%2.6×

Compare every broker on the MRPL MTF page.

MRPL vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MRPL (this stock)14.1×2.59%₹27,071 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
BPCL5.1×5.67%₹1.34L Cr
ONGC7.4×4.99%₹3.09L Cr
IOC4.8×4.85%₹2.04L Cr
GAIL15.4×4.23%₹1.17L Cr
IGL15.3×2.50%₹23,728 Cr

About MRPL: sector, index & market-cap context

MRPL (MRPL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹27,071 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the MRPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MRPL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MRPL analysis, FAQs

Is MRPL (MRPL) a good buy?

On the numbers, MRPL (MRPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.1× earnings, ROE of 14.2%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MRPL overvalued or undervalued?

MRPL trades at 14.1× earnings versus a peer median of 14.1×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.

What is the MRPL share price target for 2031?

MRPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹35, with an 80% range of ₹10₹133 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MRPL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MRPL reaching ₹308 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for MRPL?

Trades at just 14.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 14.2% return on equity. Pays a 2.6% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.

What are the risks in MRPL?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MRPL