Case study

MRPL

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +0.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

60Score

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MRPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) trades at ₹167,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.5× earnings, ROE of 14.5%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MRPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹29,270 Cr
Current price
₹167
P/E ratio
10.5×
P/B ratio
2.06×
Book value
₹81
Dividend yield
2.40%
ROCE
18.0%
ROE
14.5%
Piotroski F-Score
3/8

How MRPL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is MRPL overvalued? MRPL P/E vs its Energy

MRPL's P/E of 10.5× sits above the Energy peer median of 10.5×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 2.40% dividend yield is below the peer median of 2.88%.

MRPL P/E
10.5×
Peer median P/E
10.5×
MRPL div yield
2.40%
Peer median yield
2.88%

MRPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MRPL history (8%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MRPL 2027₹95₹167₹295+0%
MRPL 2028₹74₹168₹380+0%
MRPL 2029₹62₹168₹458+1%
MRPL 2030₹53₹168₹534+1%
MRPL 2031₹46₹169₹623+1%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MRPL goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
50%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹334 within 5 years

The bull case for MRPL

  • MRPL's P/E of 10.5x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • MRPL's return on equity of 14.5% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • MRPL's return on capital employed of 18.0% ranks in the 75th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • MRPL's dividend yield of 2.4% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹458.

The bear case & risks

  • MRPL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹62.

MRPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years MRPL compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹95-₹295, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MRPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.2%
80% range₹95-₹295
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
0.6%
80% range₹62-₹458
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1.0%
80% range₹46-₹623
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)25%

MRPL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MRPL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MRPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MRPL price target & forecast page.

MRPL Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?

3/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MRPL scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.

MRPL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MRPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox37.99%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.93%2.6×
Groww38.12%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST37.93%2.6×
Kotak Neo38.02%2.6×
Paytm Money38.10%2.6×
Pocketful38.38%2.6×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST37.93%2.6×
Bajaj Broking39.00%2.6×
Share India38.10%2.6×

Compare every broker on the MRPL MTF page.

MRPL vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MRPL (this stock)10.5×2.40%₹29,270 Cr
RELIANCE24.2×0.45%₹18.06L Cr
BPCL9.0×5.45%₹1.39L Cr
ONGC6.9×5.13%₹3.00L Cr
IOC6.0×5.75%₹2.02L Cr
GAIL11.6×2.88%₹1.14L Cr
IGL13.7×2.14%₹21,272 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹29,270 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the MRPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MRPL analysis, FAQs

Is Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.5× earnings, ROE of 14.5%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MRPL overvalued or undervalued?

MRPL trades at 10.5× earnings versus a peer median of 10.5×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.

What is the MRPL share price target for 2031?

MRPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹169, with an 80% range of ₹46-₹623 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MRPL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MRPL reaching ₹334 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for MRPL?

MRPL's P/E of 10.5x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. MRPL's return on equity of 14.5% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. MRPL's return on capital employed of 18.0% ranks in the 75th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in MRPL?

MRPL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MRPL