BHEL
BHEL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
BHEL (BHEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BHEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
BHEL (BHEL) trades at ₹412,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.
On the numbers, BHEL (BHEL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 89.7× earnings, ROE of 6.3%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
BHEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is BHEL overvalued? BHEL P/E vs its Capital Goods
BHEL's P/E of 89.7× sits above the Capital Goods peer median of 66.0×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.12% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.14%.
BHEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of BHEL history (17%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHEL 2027 | ₹287 | ₹460 | ₹744 | +11% |
| BHEL 2028 | ₹262 | ₹509 | ₹998 | +23% |
| BHEL 2029 | ₹248 | ₹569 | ₹1,309 | +37% |
| BHEL 2030 | ₹243 | ₹642 | ₹1,635 | +55% |
| BHEL 2031 | ₹246 | ₹701 | ₹2,069 | +69% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BHEL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BHEL
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹460 (+11%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,309.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 89.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 6.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹248.
BHEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years BHEL compounded at 17%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹287–₹744, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BHEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BHEL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BHEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BHEL price target & forecast page.
BHEL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. BHEL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
BHEL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BHEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 33.5% | 3.0× |
| Zerodha | 28.6% | 3.5× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 26.5% | 3.8× |
Compare every broker on the BHEL MTF page.
BHEL vs peers,Capital Goods comparison
About BHEL: sector, index & market-cap context
BHEL (BHEL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Capital Goods sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.43L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the BHEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of BHEL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BHEL analysis, FAQs
Is BHEL (BHEL) a good buy?
On the numbers, BHEL (BHEL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 89.7× earnings, ROE of 6.3%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BHEL overvalued or undervalued?
BHEL trades at 89.7× earnings versus a peer median of 66.0×, so it screens richer than its Capital Goods peers.
What is the BHEL share price target for 2031?
BHEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹701, with an 80% range of ₹246–₹2,069 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BHEL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BHEL reaching ₹829 (2×) within 5 years is 42%.
What is the bull case for BHEL?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹460 (+11%).
What are the risks in BHEL?
A rich 89.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 6.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.