Case study

BHEL

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited

Tread carefully1y model +5.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BHEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) trades at ₹405,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 58.0× earnings, ROE of 6.2%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BHEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.41L Cr
Current price
₹405
P/E ratio
58.0×
P/B ratio
5.39×
Book value
₹75
Dividend yield
0.35%
ROCE
9.1%
ROE
6.2%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How BHEL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is BHEL overvalued? BHEL P/E vs its Capital Goods

BHEL's P/E of 58.0× sits above the Capital Goods peer median of 58.0×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.35% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.46%.

BHEL P/E
58.0×
Peer median P/E
58.0×
BHEL div yield
0.35%
Peer median yield
0.46%

BHEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BHEL history (15%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BHEL 2027₹264₹426₹687+5%
BHEL 2028₹230₹449₹874+11%
BHEL 2029₹208₹472₹1,074+16%
BHEL 2030₹194₹497₹1,272+23%
BHEL 2031₹180₹523₹1,514+29%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BHEL goes up, or doubles?

56%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
30%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹810 within 5 years

The bull case for BHEL

  • Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,074.

The bear case & risks

  • BHEL's P/E of 58.0x is lower than 22% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • BHEL's return on equity of 6.2% ranks in the 34th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹208.

BHEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years BHEL compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹264-₹687, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BHEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.2%
80% range₹264-₹687
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
16.5%
80% range₹208-₹1,074
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
29.0%
80% range₹180-₹1,514
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)30%

BHEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BHEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BHEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BHEL price target & forecast page.

BHEL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BHEL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

BHEL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BHEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.56%3.4×
Zerodha28.20%3.5×
Groww28.27%3.5×
DhanCHEAPEST26.02%3.8×
Kotak Neo26.04%3.8×
Paytm Money26.79%3.7×
Pocketful33.51%3.0×
Anand Rathi33.02%3.0×
Bajaj Broking27.00%3.7×
Share India33.17%3.0×

Compare every broker on the BHEL MTF page.

BHEL vs peers,Capital Goods comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
BHEL (this stock)58.0×0.35%₹1.41L Cr
SIEMENS50.0×0.46%₹1.40L Cr
CUMMINSIND61.7×1.22%₹1.50L Cr
ABB104.0×0.52%₹1.61L Cr
CGPOWER109.0×0.15%₹1.38L Cr
POLYCAB48.5×0.51%₹1.39L Cr
KEI53.7×0.08%₹53,536 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Capital Goods sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.41L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BHEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BHEL analysis, FAQs

Is Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 58.0× earnings, ROE of 6.2%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BHEL overvalued or undervalued?

BHEL trades at 58.0× earnings versus a peer median of 58.0×, so it screens richer than its Capital Goods peers.

What is the BHEL share price target for 2031?

BHEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹523, with an 80% range of ₹180-₹1,514 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BHEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BHEL reaching ₹810 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.

What is the bull case for BHEL?

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in BHEL?

BHEL's P/E of 58.0x is lower than 22% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. BHEL's return on equity of 6.2% ranks in the 34th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on BHEL