Case study

KEI

KEI Industries

Mixed signals1y model +3.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

KEI Industries (KEI) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KEI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

KEI Industries (KEI) trades at ₹5,660,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.

On the numbers, KEI Industries (KEI) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing expensive at 58.9× earnings, ROE of 14.8%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KEI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹54,107 Cr
Current price
₹5,660
P/E ratio
58.9×
P/B ratio
8.12×
Book value
₹697
Dividend yield
0.08%
ROCE
20.1%
ROE
14.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KEI overvalued? KEI P/E vs its Capital Goods

KEI's P/E of 58.9× sits below the Capital Goods peer median of 66.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.08% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.14%.

KEI P/E
58.9×
Peer median P/E
66.0×
KEI div yield
0.08%
Peer median yield
0.14%

KEI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KEI history (12%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KEI 2027₹3,518₹5,837₹9,779+4%
KEI 2028₹2,980₹6,034₹12,357+7%
KEI 2029₹2,616₹6,328₹15,351+12%
KEI 2030₹2,367₹6,597₹17,984+17%
KEI 2031₹2,163₹6,922₹21,089+23%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KEI goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
59%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹11,262 within 5 years

The bull case for KEI

  • A healthy 14.8% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (20.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹15,351.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 58.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 8.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,616.

KEI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years KEI compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,518₹9,779, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KEI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.7%
80% range₹3,518–₹9,779
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
12.4%
80% range₹2,616–₹15,351
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
22.9%
80% range₹2,163–₹21,089
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)29%

KEI price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KEI simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KEI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KEI price target & forecast page.

KEI Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KEI scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KEI MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KEI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox32.6%3.1×
Zerodha27.8%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST25.6%3.9×

Compare every broker on the KEI MTF page.

KEI vs peers,Capital Goods comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KEI (this stock)58.9×0.08%₹54,107 Cr
SIEMENS56.5×0.00%₹1.34L Cr
BHEL89.7×0.12%₹1.43L Cr
CUMMINSIND66.0×1.15%₹1.60L Cr
ABB101.0×0.54%₹1.54L Cr
CGPOWER123.0×0.14%₹1.52L Cr
POLYCAB60.0×0.47%₹1.51L Cr

About KEI Industries: sector, index & market-cap context

KEI Industries (KEI) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Capital Goods sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹54,107 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the KEI Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of KEI Industries's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KEI analysis, FAQs

Is KEI Industries (KEI) a good buy?

On the numbers, KEI Industries (KEI) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing expensive at 58.9× earnings, ROE of 14.8%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KEI overvalued or undervalued?

KEI trades at 58.9× earnings versus a peer median of 66.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Capital Goods peers.

What is the KEI share price target for 2031?

KEI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹6,922, with an 80% range of ₹2,163₹21,089 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KEI doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KEI reaching ₹11,262 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for KEI?

A healthy 14.8% return on equity. Strong ROCE (20.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in KEI?

A rich 58.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 8.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on KEI