Case study

CUMMINSIND

Cummins India Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +10.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

60Score

Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CUMMINSIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) trades at ₹5,426,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 61.7× earnings, ROE of 30.2%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CUMMINSIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.50L Cr
Current price
₹5,426
P/E ratio
61.7×
P/B ratio
17.73×
Book value
₹306
Dividend yield
1.22%
ROCE
39.5%
ROE
30.2%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How CUMMINSIND ranks against the 2,374 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for CUMMINSIND, as of 10 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is CUMMINSIND overvalued? CUMMINSIND P/E vs its Capital Goods

CUMMINSIND's P/E of 61.7× sits above the Capital Goods peer median of 58.3×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.22% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.46%.

CUMMINSIND P/E
61.7×
Peer median P/E
58.3×
CUMMINSIND div yield
1.22%
Peer median yield
0.46%

CUMMINSIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of CUMMINSIND history (18%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CUMMINSIND 2027₹4,081₹6,028₹8,905+11%
CUMMINSIND 2028₹3,850₹6,671₹11,557+22%
CUMMINSIND 2029₹3,760₹7,381₹14,492+35%
CUMMINSIND 2030₹3,755₹8,168₹17,767+50%
CUMMINSIND 2031₹3,898₹9,038₹20,954+66%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CUMMINSIND goes up, or doubles?

63%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
77%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
40%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹10,896 within 5 years

The bull case for CUMMINSIND

  • CUMMINSIND's return on equity of 30.2% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
  • CUMMINSIND's return on capital employed of 39.5% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹6,028 (+11%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹14,492.

The bear case & risks

  • CUMMINSIND's P/E of 62.0x is lower than 20% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 17.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3,760.

CUMMINSIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years CUMMINSIND compounded at 18%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹4,081-₹8,905, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CUMMINSIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.7%
80% range₹4,081-₹8,905
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
35.5%
80% range₹3,760-₹14,492
P(price ↑)72%
P(price 2×)23%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
65.9%
80% range₹3,898-₹20,954
P(price ↑)77%
P(price 2×)40%

CUMMINSIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CUMMINSIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CUMMINSIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CUMMINSIND price target & forecast page.

CUMMINSIND Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. CUMMINSIND scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

CUMMINSIND MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CUMMINSIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.00%3.8×
Zerodha25.10%4.0×
Groww25.18%4.0×
Dhan23.00%4.3×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST22.47%4.5×
Paytm Money22.62%4.4×
Pocketful29.73%3.4×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi29.47%3.4×
Bajaj Broking24.00%4.2×
Share India29.56%3.4×

Compare every broker on the CUMMINSIND MTF page.

CUMMINSIND vs peers,Capital Goods comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CUMMINSIND (this stock)61.7×1.22%₹1.50L Cr
SIEMENS49.6×0.46%₹1.39L Cr
BHEL58.3×0.34%₹1.42L Cr
ABB105.0×0.51%₹1.62L Cr
CGPOWER108.0×0.15%₹1.38L Cr
POLYCAB48.5×0.51%₹1.39L Cr
KEI54.0×0.08%₹53,868 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 10 Aug 2026

About Cummins India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Capital Goods sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.50L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the CUMMINSIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cummins India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CUMMINSIND analysis, FAQs

Is Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 61.7× earnings, ROE of 30.2%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CUMMINSIND overvalued or undervalued?

CUMMINSIND trades at 61.7× earnings versus a peer median of 58.3×, so it screens richer than its Capital Goods peers.

What is the CUMMINSIND share price target for 2031?

CUMMINSIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹9,038, with an 80% range of ₹3,898-₹20,954 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CUMMINSIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CUMMINSIND reaching ₹10,896 (2×) within 5 years is 40%.

What is the bull case for CUMMINSIND?

CUMMINSIND's return on equity of 30.2% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026. CUMMINSIND's return on capital employed of 39.5% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹6,028 (+11%).

What are the risks in CUMMINSIND?

CUMMINSIND's P/E of 62.0x is lower than 20% of the 2,374 NSE companies in our screener, as of 10 Aug 2026. A steep 17.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on CUMMINSIND