CUMMINSIND
Cummins India
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Cummins India (CUMMINSIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is CUMMINSIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Cummins India (CUMMINSIND) trades at ₹5,764,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.
On the numbers, Cummins India (CUMMINSIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 66.0× earnings, ROE of 30.2%, a 68% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
CUMMINSIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is CUMMINSIND overvalued? CUMMINSIND P/E vs its Capital Goods
CUMMINSIND's P/E of 66.0× sits above the Capital Goods peer median of 66.0×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.15% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.14%.
CUMMINSIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CUMMINSIND history (19%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CUMMINSIND 2027 | ₹4,525 | ₹6,741 | ₹9,980 | +15% |
| CUMMINSIND 2028 | ₹4,398 | ₹7,729 | ₹13,691 | +32% |
| CUMMINSIND 2029 | ₹4,497 | ₹8,975 | ₹17,775 | +53% |
| CUMMINSIND 2030 | ₹4,648 | ₹10,314 | ₹22,466 | +76% |
| CUMMINSIND 2031 | ₹4,898 | ₹12,029 | ₹28,503 | +105% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability CUMMINSIND goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for CUMMINSIND
- High return on equity (30.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (39.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 68% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹6,741 (+15%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹17,775.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 66.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 18.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹4,497.
CUMMINSIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years CUMMINSIND compounded at 19%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹4,525–₹9,980, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
CUMMINSIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
CUMMINSIND price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds CUMMINSIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the CUMMINSIND price target & forecast page.
CUMMINSIND Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CUMMINSIND scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
CUMMINSIND MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CUMMINSIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.9% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 25.5% | 3.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.0% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the CUMMINSIND MTF page.
CUMMINSIND vs peers,Capital Goods comparison
About Cummins India: sector, index & market-cap context
Cummins India (CUMMINSIND) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Capital Goods sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.60L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the CUMMINSIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cummins India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
CUMMINSIND analysis, FAQs
Is Cummins India (CUMMINSIND) a good buy?
On the numbers, Cummins India (CUMMINSIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 66.0× earnings, ROE of 30.2%, a 68% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is CUMMINSIND overvalued or undervalued?
CUMMINSIND trades at 66.0× earnings versus a peer median of 66.0×, so it screens richer than its Capital Goods peers.
What is the CUMMINSIND share price target for 2031?
CUMMINSIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹12,029, with an 80% range of ₹4,898–₹28,503 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability CUMMINSIND doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of CUMMINSIND reaching ₹11,730 (2×) within 5 years is 51%.
What is the bull case for CUMMINSIND?
High return on equity (30.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (39.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 68% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹6,741 (+15%).
What are the risks in CUMMINSIND?
A rich 66.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 18.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.